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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
LebanonLebanon Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 20.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Lebanon Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 20.0% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 2.7% from March's 17.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 19.0% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 13.5%, vs 15.27% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
20
Actual
19
Consensus
17.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.74 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 18.8
Actual: 20
Error: -1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Lebanon) was reported at 20% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 19% by 1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 17.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.73%, ranging from 10.9% to 20% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 14.4%, down from the prior three at 15.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.28%) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.49%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 30.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.74%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - LB
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Lebanon
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 20 %, consensus 19 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 17.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 12.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.