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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Producer Price Index YoY fell to 1.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Sri Lanka Producer Price Index YoY fell to 1.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 2.0% from May's 3.3% reading. The reading missed the 2.8% consensus by 1.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.98%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 2.25%, vs 1.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
2.8
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.25
Actual: 2.8
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Sri Lanka) was reported at 1.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.1%, ranging from -0.5% to 3% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, up from the prior three at 1.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.76%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Producer Price Index YoY has averaged 1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.41%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - LK
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
Sri Lanka's Producer Price Index YoY for June came in at 1.3%, missing the 2.8% estimate and down from May's 3.3%, signaling a sharp deceleration in producer inflation. The index contracted significantly compared to May, reflecting easing cost pressures in the supply chain. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy adjustments amid this slowdown. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - LK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | LK | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.10 | Low |
| 09:30 | LK | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.05 | Low |
| 09:30 | LK | Inflation Rate YoY | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | LK | Balance of Trade | -829 | -968 | -820 | -824.50 | Low |