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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Services PMI fell to 54.4 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Sri Lanka Services PMI fell to 54.4 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 10.1 from January's 64.5 reading. The reading missed the 62.6 consensus by 8.2. Services PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Services PMI averaged 66.2, vs 56.88 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 12th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.4
Actual
62.6
Consensus
64.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.93
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 66.73
Actual: 54.4
Error: +12.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Services PMI (Sri Lanka) was reported at 54.40 in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 62.60 by 8.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 64.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 62.54, ranging from 50.50 to 70.10 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 62.27, up from the prior three at 58.40. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.40) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.47). In March readings over the past 3 years, Services PMI has averaged 54.63.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.93.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Services PMI - LK
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About Services PMI — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in a country. It provides valuable insights into the health of the economy by tracking changes in business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. A high Services PMI indicates a growing services sector, while a low PMI suggests a contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic outlook.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 54.4. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 64.5. Before that (Dec 2025): 67.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.