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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
LithuaniaLithuania Balance of Trade fell to -0.86B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Lithuania Balance of Trade fell to -0.86B in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.25B from April's -0.61B reading. The reading missed the -0.7B consensus by 0.16B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -0.58B, vs -0.41B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-0.855
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
-0.607
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.6
Actual: -0.86
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Lithuania) was reported at -0.86 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.70 billion by 0.16 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.61 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.55 billion, ranging from -0.91 billion to -0.27 billion across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.60 billion, down from the prior three at -0.56 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.23 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.15 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -0.57 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - LT
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About Balance of Trade — Lithuania
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.855 B, consensus -0.7 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.607 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.548 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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