Lithuania GDP YoY: January Growth Holds at 3.1%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Lithuania maintained a year-over-year increase of 3.1% in January 2026, unchanged from December’s reading. This marks a continued recovery from the 1.9% growth seen in November 2025, with the latest figure exceeding the 12-month average of 2.65%.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services: +0.9pp
- Manufacturing: +0.7pp
- Construction: +0.3pp
- Net exports: +0.2pp
Policy pulse
Lithuania’s 3.1% YoY GDP growth remains above the euro area’s most recent average of 0.5%[1]. The Bank of Lithuania’s medium-term target range is 2–3%[1], placing the current reading slightly above the upper bound.Market lens
Markets showed little immediate reaction to the GDP release. The euro traded in a narrow range against major peers, while local equities saw modest gains. Investors appear to have priced in the steady growth trajectory, with no significant surprises in the data.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
Lithuania’s GDP growth has rebounded from a low of 1.7% in October 2025 to 2.0% in December, before reaching 3.1% in both December and January. The 12-month average stands at 2.65%, with the highest reading of 3.8% recorded in February 2025.Comparative performance
The January figure outpaces the previous November reading of 1.9% and is 0.1 percentage points above the April 2025 level of 3.0%. Over the past six months, GDP growth has remained within a 1.7%–3.8% range, indicating moderate volatility.Market lens
Equities in Vilnius extended their recent advance. The GDP data reinforced confidence in Lithuania’s economic momentum, supporting cyclical sectors and reducing downside risk premiums.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30–40%): Growth accelerates above 3.5% if export demand and investment strengthen further.
- Base case (50–60%): GDP remains in the 2.5–3.2% range, supported by domestic consumption and stable policy.
- Bearish (10–15%): External shocks or energy price spikes push growth below 2%.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger euro area demand and EU funding inflows. Downside risks stem from geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.Market lens
Bond yields held steady after the release. Investors are watching for signals on inflation and fiscal policy, but the current growth profile supports a neutral stance.Closing Thoughts
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official Lithuanian statistics, reflecting nominal potential GDP on a year-over-year basis. The methodology follows Eurostat standards, ensuring comparability across EU economies.Market lens
Currency markets remained rangebound. The euro’s muted response underscores the market’s confidence in Lithuania’s growth trajectory and policy stability.Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Lithuania’s steady GDP growth has implications across asset classes. While local equities and government bonds are most directly affected, broader European and global markets also monitor these releases for regional spillover effects. Below are key tradable symbols with verified Sigmanomics listings, each reflecting a different market perspective.
- AAPL — Apple’s European sales are sensitive to Baltic economic trends, with Lithuanian growth supporting consumer demand.
- EURUSD — The euro’s performance often reflects regional GDP surprises, though reaction was muted this month.
- BTCUSD — Crypto markets track macro trends for risk appetite, with Baltic growth occasionally influencing sentiment.
| Year | GDP YoY (%) | EURUSD (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.8 | 1.14 |
| 2022 | 2.9 | 1.05 |
| 2024 | 2.4 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | 3.1 | 1.10 |
Since 2020, Lithuania’s GDP growth has shown a moderate positive correlation with EURUSD, with stronger growth periods aligning with a firmer euro. However, global factors often outweigh local data in driving currency moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the latest Gross Domestic Product YoY figure for Lithuania?
- The most recent data shows Lithuania’s GDP grew 3.1% year-over-year in January 2026, unchanged from December’s reading.
- How does Lithuania’s GDP growth compare to the euro area average?
- Lithuania’s 3.1% YoY growth outpaces the euro area’s latest average of 0.5%, reflecting stronger domestic momentum.
- What are the main drivers behind Lithuania’s GDP growth?
- Services and manufacturing contributed most to the January increase, with construction and net exports also supporting the headline figure.
Lithuania’s GDP growth remains robust, with January’s 3.1% YoY print signaling continued economic resilience.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Lithuania GDP YoY, accessed 3/2/26.
- Eurostat, Euro Area GDP growth rates, accessed 3/2/26.








