Lithuania Inflation Rate MoM: February 2026 Print Eases to 1.1%
February’s inflation rate in Lithuania moderated to 1.1% month-over-month, following a sharp 1.5% increase in January. The latest figure remains above the 12-month average, reflecting persistent price pressures in key sectors.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Energy: +0.42pp
- Food: +0.31pp
- Transport: +0.18pp
- Clothing: +0.09pp
- Recreation: +0.07pp
Policy pulse
February’s 1.1% MoM inflation remains well above the European Central Bank’s 2% annual target, highlighting ongoing price instability in Lithuania.
Market lens
Bond yields edged higher on the release, as investors priced in persistent inflation risk. The spread between Lithuanian and German 10-year yields widened by 6 basis points, reflecting concerns over the stickiness of core price growth.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 1.1%
- January 2026: 1.5%
- December 2025: 0.4%
- November 2025: 0.2%
- October 2025: 0.3%
- September 2025: -0.2%
Comparative perspective
The 12-month average inflation rate stands at 0.38%, with February’s reading nearly triple that pace. Over the past six months, volatility has increased, with three prints above 1% and two below 0.5%.
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official Lithuanian statistics, calculated as the percentage change in the consumer price index from the previous month. All numbers are rounded to two decimal places for clarity.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (15–25%): Energy prices retreat, inflation drops below 0.5% MoM in coming months.
- Base case (55–65%): Inflation moderates to 0.6–0.8% MoM, tracking above the 12-month average.
- Bearish (15–25%): Further energy and food shocks push inflation back above 1.2% MoM.
Risks
Upside risks include renewed energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Downside risks stem from potential demand softening and base effects from last year’s negative prints.
Data source
All data are from Sigmanomics and Lithuania’s official statistics office, using harmonized consumer price indices.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Equities in Vilnius traded flat post-release, as investors weighed persistent inflation against robust earnings guidance. The euro held steady versus major peers, with traders awaiting further signals from the ECB.
Takeaway
February’s inflation print underscores Lithuania’s ongoing struggle with elevated price growth, particularly in energy and food. While the pace has eased from January, the reading remains uncomfortably high by historical standards.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Lithuania’s inflation data has ripple effects across asset classes. Equity, currency, and crypto markets each respond to shifts in price growth, reflecting changing expectations for policy and economic momentum. The following symbols have shown notable sensitivity to inflation prints:
- AAPL — Apple shares often react to global inflation trends, as input costs and consumer demand shift.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair is sensitive to eurozone inflation surprises, including those from Lithuania.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s price often moves on inflation headlines, as investors seek hedges against fiat currency debasement.
| Year | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | EURUSD (avg. close) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.12 | 1.14 |
| 2021 | 0.28 | 1.18 |
| 2022 | 0.54 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | 0.47 | 1.08 |
| 2024 | 0.36 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | 0.38 | 1.07 |
Since 2020, periods of higher Lithuanian inflation have coincided with euro weakness, as seen in the EURUSD trend. This correlation highlights the cross-market impact of Baltic price pressures.
FAQ: Lithuania Inflation Rate MoM: February 2026 Print Eases to 1.1%
- What is Lithuania's latest monthly inflation rate?
- February 2026’s inflation rate in Lithuania was 1.1% MoM, down from January’s 1.5%.
- What are the key takeaways from the February 2026 inflation report?
- Lithuania’s inflation slowed to 1.1% MoM in February, driven by energy and food prices, but remains above the 12-month average of 0.38%.
- What does "Inflation Rate MoM" mean in this context?
- It measures the percentage change in consumer prices in Lithuania from January to February 2026, reflecting short-term price trends.
Persistent inflation in Lithuania keeps price pressures elevated despite a slowdown from January’s peak.
Updated 3/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data: Lithuania Inflation Rate MoM, accessed 3/9/26
- Official Statistics Lithuania, Consumer Price Index releases, accessed 3/9/26
February’s 1.1% MoM inflation marks a deceleration from January’s 1.5%, but remains well above the 12-month average of 0.38%. The last time inflation was negative was in September 2025, at -0.2%.
Since October, the trend has shifted upward, with the last three months averaging 0.97%. This signals a reacceleration after a period of relative stability in late 2025.