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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
LuxembourgLuxembourg Balance of Trade fell to -0.83B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Luxembourg Balance of Trade fell to -0.83B in June 2026, released August 2026, down 0.14B from May's -0.69B reading. The reading missed the -0.7B consensus by 0.13B. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.2B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -0.75B, vs -0.72B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.83
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
-0.69
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.65
Actual: -0.83
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Luxembourg) was reported at -0.83 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.70 billion by 0.13 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.69 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.81 billion, ranging from -1.10 billion to -0.59 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.78 billion, down from the prior three at -0.75 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.10 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -0.69 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - LU
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About Balance of Trade — Luxembourg
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.83 B, consensus -0.7 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.66 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -0.84 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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