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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
LatviaLatvia Balance of Trade climbed to -453.7M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Latvia Balance of Trade climbed to -453.7M in July 2026, released September 2026, up 22.3M from June's -476M reading. The print exceeded the -520M consensus by 66.3M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -337.68M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -425M, vs -326M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-453.7
Actual
-520
Consensus
-476
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±154.15 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -592.5
Actual: -453.7
Error: -138.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Latvia) was reported at -453.70 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -520.00 million by 66.30 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -476.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -332.52 million, ranging from -476.00 million to -171.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -434.57 million, down from the prior three at -271.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 88.88 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 108.61 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -491.77 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 154.15 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 12, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - LV
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About Balance of Trade — Latvia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -453.7 M, consensus -520 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -476 M. Before that (May 2026): -374 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - LV Events
| Monday, September 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | LV | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3 | 3.15 | Low | |
| 10:00 | LV | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.95 | Low | |