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Latvia Balance of Trade climbed to -249M in April 2026, released June 2026, up 146M from March's -395M reading. The print exceeded the -420M consensus by 171M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -332.2M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -300M, vs -331.5M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
across last 12 releases
Jun 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Balance of Trade (Latvia) was reported at -249.00 million in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -420.00 million by 171.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -395.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -330.31 million, ranging from -514.20 million to -171.00 million across 11 releases.
The trailing three releases averaged -271.67 million, up from the prior three at -317.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 95.94 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 98.91 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -280.37 million.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 85.33 million.
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -249 M, consensus -420 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -395 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -334 M.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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| Friday, June 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | Producer Price Index YoY | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.60 | Low | ||
| 10:00 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | ||