The November inflation rate MoM of 0.60% in Moldova signals a sharp rebound from the prior month’s 0.10% and contrasts with the negative 0.40% recorded in September. This recent acceleration outpaces the 12-month average MoM inflation of approximately 0.12%, highlighting renewed price pressures. The inflation surge coincides with ongoing supply chain adjustments and rising energy costs, amplified by external geopolitical tensions affecting regional trade flows.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and utilities contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp), reflecting higher energy tariffs.
• Food prices rose by 0.15 pp, driven by seasonal supply constraints and import cost inflation.
• Transport and fuel costs added 0.13 pp amid elevated global oil prices.
• Core goods excluding food and energy remained stable, contributing 0.10 pp.

Policy pulse

The 0.60% MoM inflation print exceeds the National Bank of Moldova’s target band of 3% ±1 pp on an annualized basis, signaling potential pressure on monetary policy to tighten. The central bank’s recent pause in rate hikes may be reconsidered if inflation proves persistent.

Market lens

Following the release, the Moldovan leu (MDL) weakened by 0.30% against the euro, while 2-year government bond yields rose 15 basis points, reflecting market anticipation of tighter monetary conditions. Breakeven inflation swaps for the next 12 months climbed 20 basis points, underscoring elevated inflation expectations.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for the inflation surge. Moldova’s GDP growth slowed to 1.80% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.30% in Q2, indicating moderate economic momentum. Unemployment remains steady at 5.70%, while wage growth accelerated to 6.20% YoY, supporting consumer demand but also feeding inflationary pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Moldova’s key policy rate stands at 7.50%, unchanged since September. However, rising inflation and inflation expectations may prompt a 25 basis point hike in the December meeting. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.50% YoY, with tighter lending standards reflecting cautious financial conditions.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit projected at 3.80% of GDP. Increased social spending and infrastructure investments support growth but risk overheating the economy amid rising inflation. Public debt stands at 38% of GDP, manageable but warranting vigilance.

Historical comparisons reveal that the last time Moldova experienced a similar MoM inflation jump was in early 2024, when a 0.55% rise preceded a sustained inflationary phase. The current print also exceeds the average monthly inflation rate of 0.25% recorded in 2023, indicating a departure from recent trends.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MDL weakened 0.30% against the EUR, while 2-year yields rose 15 bps, reflecting tightening expectations. Inflation swaps jumped 20 bps, signaling market concern over sustained inflation.

Looking ahead, Moldova’s inflation trajectory depends on multiple factors, including energy prices, wage growth, and external shocks. Three scenarios outline potential paths:

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Energy prices stabilize or decline due to easing geopolitical tensions.
• Supply chains normalize, reducing food and goods price pressures.
• Inflation moderates to 0.20% MoM by Q1 2026, allowing monetary easing.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Energy prices remain elevated but stable.
• Moderate wage growth sustains consumer demand.
• Inflation averages 0.40% MoM in early 2026, prompting cautious rate hikes.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical risks escalate, pushing energy and commodity prices higher.
• Supply disruptions worsen, driving food inflation above 1% MoM.
• Inflation accelerates beyond 0.70% MoM, forcing aggressive monetary tightening.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term inflation in Moldova has averaged 4.50% annually over the past decade, with structural factors such as labor market rigidities and import dependence shaping price dynamics. The recent volatility underscores the economy’s sensitivity to external shocks and the need for resilient policy frameworks.

The November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.60% in Moldova signals a clear shift in price pressures after months of subdued inflation. This acceleration challenges policymakers to balance growth support with inflation containment. The National Bank of Moldova faces a delicate path amid rising wage growth, fiscal expansion, and external uncertainties. Market reactions suggest heightened inflation expectations, which could entrench inflation if unchecked.

Continued monitoring of energy markets, geopolitical developments, and domestic demand will be critical. Moldova’s inflation outlook remains uncertain, with risks skewed to the upside but tempered by potential easing in supply constraints. Policymakers must remain agile to navigate this evolving landscape.

Key tradable symbols linked to Moldova’s inflation dynamics include:

• OMV – Austrian energy firm influencing regional energy prices impacting MD inflation.
• EURMDL – Euro to Moldovan leu exchange rate, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, reflecting investor sentiment amid inflation uncertainty.
• MTU – Industrial sector stock, sensitive to input cost inflation in Moldova’s supply chain.
• USDMXN – Proxy for emerging market currency trends, often correlated with inflationary pressures in similar economies.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

The Moldovan inflation rate MoM release typically influences energy stocks, local currency pairs, and inflation-sensitive assets. OMV’s stock price often moves with regional energy cost changes, directly impacting Moldova’s inflation. The EURMDL currency pair reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, reflecting shifts in monetary policy expectations. BTCUSD serves as a barometer for inflation hedging sentiment globally. MTU’s industrial exposure makes it sensitive to input cost inflation, while USDMXN provides insight into emerging market currency trends that often parallel Moldova’s inflation dynamics.

Extras: Inflation Rate MoM vs. EURMDL Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Moldova’s monthly inflation rate and the EURMDL exchange rate have shown a positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with MDL depreciation against the euro, as inflation pressures erode purchasing power and prompt currency adjustments. For instance, the 2023 inflation spikes aligned with a 5% MDL weakening, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to domestic price trends. This relationship highlights the importance of inflation control for currency stability.

FAQs

What does the November 2025 inflation rate MoM indicate for Moldova?

The 0.60% MoM inflation rate signals rising price pressures, exceeding expectations and suggesting potential monetary tightening ahead.

How does Moldova’s inflation compare historically?

This is the highest monthly inflation since early 2024, reversing a recent deflationary trend and surpassing the 12-month average of 0.12% MoM.

What are the main risks affecting Moldova’s inflation outlook?

Key risks include volatile energy prices, geopolitical tensions, wage growth, and fiscal expansion, which could either amplify or moderate inflation.

Takeaway: Moldova’s November 2025 inflation surge to 0.60% MoM marks a pivotal moment, demanding vigilant policy response to prevent entrenched inflation and preserve economic stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.