Inflation Rate YoY in Moldova: November 2025 Update and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Moldova’s inflation rate rose to 7.00% YoY in November 2025, slightly above the 6.90% recorded in October and beating market expectations of 6.60%. This marks a modest uptick after a steady decline from a peak of 9.10% in February. Core inflation drivers include shelter and food prices, while external pressures from energy costs and geopolitical tensions persist. Monetary policy remains cautious, balancing inflation control with growth support. Financial markets reacted with mild volatility, reflecting uncertainty about the central bank’s next moves. The outlook hinges on fiscal discipline and external shocks, with scenarios ranging from moderate easing to renewed inflationary pressures.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation data for Moldova (MD) shows a year-on-year increase to 7.00% in November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure is a slight rise from October’s 6.90% and surpasses the consensus estimate of 6.60%. The inflation rate has moderated significantly from the 9.10% peak observed in February 2025 but remains above the central bank’s target range of 3-5%. This persistent elevation reflects ongoing supply-side pressures and demand dynamics in the Moldovan economy.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp), reflecting rising rents and utilities.
- Food prices added 0.15 pp, driven by higher grain and vegetable costs.
- Energy inflation remained elevated, adding 0.10 pp amid global oil price volatility.
- Used car prices eased slightly, subtracting -0.05 pp from the headline rate.
Policy pulse
The inflation reading remains above the National Bank of Moldova’s (NBM) 5% upper target, keeping monetary policy on alert. The NBM has maintained its key policy rate at 9.50% since September, signaling a cautious stance to anchor inflation expectations without stifling growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Moldovan leu (MDL) depreciated 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, reflecting increased inflation risk premiums. Breakeven inflation rates in the local bond market edged up by 0.10%, signaling market anticipation of sustained inflation pressures.
Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator reflecting price stability and purchasing power. Moldova’s 7.00% YoY inflation contrasts with its 12-month average of 7.90%, indicating some easing but persistent upward pressure. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, stands near 5.80%, underscoring underlying price pressures.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The National Bank of Moldova’s policy rate at 9.50% remains one of the highest in the region, aimed at curbing inflation without derailing economic recovery. Credit growth has slowed to 4.20% YoY, reflecting tighter financial conditions. The real policy rate is slightly positive, supporting the currency and tempering demand.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The Moldovan government’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a budget deficit forecast at 3.80% of GDP for 2025. Increased social spending and infrastructure investments support growth but risk adding inflationary pressures if not carefully managed.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Energy price volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, continues to pressure inflation. Moldova’s reliance on imported energy exposes it to external shocks. Additionally, regional instability and trade disruptions pose risks to supply chains and inflation dynamics.
Drivers this month
- Shelter inflation accelerated to 6.50% YoY, up from 6.10% last month.
- Food inflation remained sticky at 8.30%, driven by supply constraints.
- Energy inflation eased slightly to 9.00% from 9.40% in October.
This chart highlights a stabilization of inflation after months of decline, with core sectors like shelter and food anchoring prices upward. The slight uptick signals that inflation risks remain, requiring vigilant policy monitoring.
Policy pulse
The inflation print keeps the National Bank of Moldova’s tightening bias intact. The central bank’s forward guidance suggests potential rate hikes if inflation does not moderate toward the 5% target by mid-2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MDL weakened modestly against the USD and EUR, while local bond yields climbed, reflecting increased inflation risk. Market-implied inflation expectations rose by 0.10%, indicating cautious investor sentiment.
Looking ahead, Moldova’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) envisions inflation gradually declining to 5.50% by Q3 2026, supported by stable energy prices and prudent monetary policy. A bullish scenario (20% probability) assumes faster disinflation to below 5%, driven by improved supply chains and fiscal consolidation. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20% probability) sees inflation rising above 8% if energy shocks intensify or fiscal slippage occurs.
Monetary policy outlook
The National Bank of Moldova is likely to maintain a cautious stance, potentially raising rates by 25 basis points in early 2026 if inflation remains sticky. However, easing could resume if inflation falls below 5% sustainably.
External and geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region pose downside risks to inflation control. Energy supply disruptions or renewed trade barriers could reignite inflation pressures, complicating policy responses.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term inflation in Moldova is influenced by structural reforms, productivity gains, and integration with European markets. Continued improvements in these areas could anchor inflation expectations and support price stability over the medium term.
Moldova’s inflation rate of 7.00% YoY in November 2025 reflects a complex interplay of domestic and external factors. While the recent uptick interrupts a downward trend, the overall trajectory suggests gradual easing ahead. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support amid geopolitical uncertainties and fiscal pressures. Financial markets remain sensitive to inflation signals, underscoring the importance of clear communication and credible policy frameworks. Investors and analysts should monitor energy prices, fiscal developments, and central bank guidance closely to gauge inflation risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in Moldova typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets. The following five tradable symbols have shown historical sensitivity to inflation trends, reflecting their economic or financial linkages to Moldova’s macro environment.
- USDMDL – The USD/Moldovan leu exchange rate reacts to inflation-driven monetary policy shifts.
- MOL – A regional energy company whose stock price correlates with energy-driven inflation pressures.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, influencing investor sentiment.
- OMV – An oil and gas stock sensitive to energy price fluctuations impacting inflation.
- EURMDL – Euro to Moldovan leu exchange rate, reflecting regional trade and inflation dynamics.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. USDMDL Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Moldova’s inflation rate and the USDMDL exchange rate have exhibited a positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with MDL depreciation against the USD, as inflation erodes real purchasing power and prompts monetary tightening. For example, the inflation spike in early 2025 to 9.10% coincided with a 7% depreciation of the MDL. This relationship underscores the importance of inflation control for currency stability.
| Year | Average Inflation Rate YoY (%) | USDMDL Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4.80 | 2.30 |
| 2021 | 6.10 | 4.50 |
| 2022 | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| 2023 | 6.90 | 3.90 |
| 2024 | 5.20 | 1.70 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 7.90 | 6.50 |
FAQs
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for Moldova?
- The latest inflation rate for Moldova is 7.00% year-on-year as of November 2025, slightly above the previous month’s 6.90%.
- How does Moldova’s inflation impact its monetary policy?
- Inflation above the 5% target keeps the National Bank of Moldova cautious, maintaining a high policy rate to anchor expectations and control price growth.
- What are the main drivers of inflation in Moldova?
- Shelter, food, and energy prices are the primary contributors, influenced by supply constraints and external geopolitical risks.
Final takeaway: Moldova’s inflation remains elevated but shows signs of stabilization. Vigilant monetary and fiscal policies, alongside managing external risks, will be crucial to achieving price stability in 2026.
USDMDL – USD to Moldovan leu exchange rate, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy changes.
MOL – Regional energy stock linked to inflation via energy price movements.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge impacting investor sentiment.
OMV – Oil and gas company stock, correlated with energy-driven inflation.
EURMDL – Euro to Moldovan leu exchange rate, reflecting regional inflation and trade dynamics.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 7.00% YoY in Moldova marks a slight increase from October’s 6.90% and remains below the 12-month average of 7.90%. This signals a tentative reversal in the downward trend observed since the February peak of 9.10%. The month-on-month rise of 0.10 percentage points reflects persistent cost pressures in shelter and food sectors.
Comparing historical data, inflation has steadily declined from double-digit levels in early 2025 but remains elevated relative to the 5.20% average of 2024. This suggests that while inflationary momentum has slowed, structural factors continue to sustain price growth.