The Producer Price Index YoY for Moldova eased to 6.40% in November 2025, signaling a slowdown in upstream inflation. This follows a peak of 7.10% in October and compares with a 12-month average of approximately 5.40% since March 2025. The moderation reflects easing cost pressures in key sectors amid tighter monetary policy and subdued external demand.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and energy costs contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp) to the PPI increase.
• Manufacturing input prices eased, subtracting 0.15 pp from the headline figure.
• Food processing inflation remained elevated, adding 0.18 pp.

Policy pulse

The 6.40% reading remains above the National Bank of Moldova’s inflation target of 3%, but the downward trend supports the central bank’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady after a series of hikes earlier this year. The moderation in producer prices may reduce pressure on consumer inflation in coming months.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MDL currency strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting easing inflation concerns.

The PPI YoY is a critical gauge of inflationary pressures at the wholesale level, often foreshadowing consumer price trends. Moldova’s 6.40% November reading is elevated relative to the 3.40% recorded in March 2025 but shows a clear deceleration from the recent peak in October. This aligns with broader macroeconomic indicators signaling a cooling economy.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Moldova has maintained its policy rate at 7.50% since September, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit growth slowing to 4.10% YoY in October from 5.60% earlier in the year. The PPI moderation supports the central bank’s cautious stance.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal discipline remains a priority amid external funding constraints. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 3.50% in Q2. Reduced inflation pressures could ease the real burden of debt servicing and support fiscal sustainability.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Regional tensions and supply chain disruptions have weighed on producer prices throughout 2025. However, recent stabilization in energy markets and easing commodity prices have contributed to the PPI slowdown. Continued geopolitical uncertainty remains a downside risk.

Chart insight

The PPI trend over the past nine months shows a clear inflection point in November 2025. After accelerating steadily from 3.40% in March to 7.10% in October, the index’s decline to 6.40% indicates a potential peak in upstream inflation. This shift could herald a moderation in headline inflation if sustained.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MDL currency appreciated modestly, while short-term bond yields fell, reflecting market optimism about inflation containment. Equity markets showed mixed responses, with industrial sectors outperforming amid easing cost pressures.

Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory will be shaped by domestic demand, global commodity prices, and policy responses. The current moderation suggests inflation pressures may ease, but risks remain from geopolitical tensions and supply chain volatility.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued easing of energy and raw material costs drives PPI below 5% by Q1 2026.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant, supporting growth without stoking inflation.
• Fiscal consolidation strengthens investor confidence, stabilizing the MDL.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• PPI stabilizes around 6% in early 2026, reflecting balanced inflation pressures.
• Monetary policy holds rates steady, monitoring inflation and growth dynamics.
• External shocks remain manageable, with moderate impact on prices.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, driving energy and commodity prices higher.
• PPI rebounds above 7%, reigniting inflation concerns and prompting rate hikes.
• Fiscal pressures increase, weakening the MDL and financial conditions.

The November 2025 PPI YoY reading of 6.40% for Moldova signals a tentative peak in producer inflation after months of rising cost pressures. While still elevated, the moderation aligns with tighter monetary policy and easing external shocks. Policymakers must remain vigilant to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions that could reverse this trend. Financial markets have responded positively, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation control and economic stability.

Monitoring the PPI alongside consumer inflation and wage growth will be key to assessing the durability of this moderation. The balance of risks suggests a base case of stable inflation near current levels, but downside risks from external shocks and fiscal pressures warrant close attention.

Overall, the data from the Sigmanomics database provide a nuanced view of Moldova’s inflation dynamics, highlighting the interplay of domestic and global factors shaping the economic outlook.

Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index YoY

The Producer Price Index YoY is a vital indicator for markets sensitive to inflation trends and economic growth. Key assets historically tracking Moldova’s PPI include the MDL currency, which reflects inflation expectations and monetary policy shifts. The USDMDL forex pair often reacts to inflation surprises, influencing trade and capital flows. On the equity side, the MOL stock, a major regional energy player, correlates with energy-driven inflation pressures. The BTCUSD crypto pair sometimes serves as an inflation hedge, while the EURMDL reflects broader European economic linkages impacting Moldova.

Producer Price Index vs. MDL Currency Since 2020

Since 2020, Moldova’s PPI YoY and the MDL currency have shown an inverse relationship. Periods of rising producer inflation often coincide with MDL depreciation due to concerns over monetary tightening and inflationary pressures. For example, the PPI surge from 3.40% in early 2025 to 7.10% in October corresponded with a 5% weakening of the MDL against the USD. The recent PPI moderation to 6.40% has supported a 0.30% MDL appreciation, highlighting the currency’s sensitivity to inflation dynamics.

FAQs

What is the significance of the Producer Price Index YoY for Moldova?

The Producer Price Index YoY measures inflation at the wholesale level, indicating cost pressures that can affect consumer prices and monetary policy decisions.

How does the latest PPI reading impact Moldova’s monetary policy?

The 6.40% PPI reading suggests easing inflation pressures, supporting the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady while monitoring future risks.

What are the main risks to Moldova’s inflation outlook?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal pressures that could push producer prices higher and complicate inflation control.

Takeaway: Moldova’s November 2025 PPI YoY reading of 6.40% signals a moderation in inflation pressures, offering cautious optimism for economic stability amid ongoing risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.