MK Balance of Trade: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
The latest Balance of Trade (BoT) data for MK, released on November 4, 2025, shows a notable improvement in the trade deficit. The deficit narrowed to -297 million MKD, beating the market estimate of -330 million MKD and improving from the previous month’s -356 million MKD. This report analyzes the latest figures using the Sigmanomics database, compares them with historical trends, and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications for MK’s economy.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 Balance of Trade print for MK reveals a smaller deficit of -297 million MKD, improving from -356 million MKD in October and significantly better than the April 2025 reading of -348 million MKD. This marks the third consecutive month of deficit reduction, signaling a potential shift in external trade dynamics. The 12-month average deficit stands near -320 million MKD, placing the latest figure comfortably below the average.
Drivers this month
- Exports rose by 4.20% MoM, supported by stronger demand in the EU and regional markets.
- Imports contracted by 2.10% MoM, reflecting subdued domestic consumption and cautious inventory restocking.
- Energy imports declined amid lower global oil prices, contributing -0.05 pp to deficit narrowing.
Policy pulse
The improved trade balance aligns with the central bank’s inflation-targeting framework, as tighter monetary policy has dampened import-driven inflation pressures. The current deficit level is consistent with sustainable external financing needs, reducing pressure on the MKD currency.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MKD appreciated 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor sentiment on external stability.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the trade balance improvement. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 3.10% YoY, supported by export-led manufacturing sectors. Inflation remains contained at 2.80% YoY, aided by lower import prices and stable commodity costs.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s recent rate hikes, totaling 75 basis points since mid-2025, have strengthened the MKD and curbed import demand. Financial conditions tightened, with credit growth slowing to 5.40% YoY, reducing domestic demand for imported goods.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a deficit of 2.50% of GDP in 2025. Reduced public spending on imports and improved tax collection have indirectly supported the trade balance by limiting external financing needs.
This chart confirms a clear trend of deficit narrowing after a peak in September 2025. The improvement is driven by export resilience and import moderation, signaling a healthier external position for MK. If sustained, this trend could ease currency pressures and support macroeconomic stability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the release, the MKD/USD pair strengthened by 0.25%, while short-term interest rate futures implied a slightly lower probability of further rate hikes, reflecting confidence in external balance improvements.
Looking ahead, the balance of trade trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses. Three scenarios emerge:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand strengthens, boosting exports by 6-8% YoY.
- Energy prices remain low, keeping import costs down.
- Trade deficit narrows further to below -250 million MKD by Q1 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate export growth of 3-4% YoY.
- Stable commodity prices with minor fluctuations.
- Trade deficit remains near current levels (-290 to -310 million MKD) through early 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- External shocks or geopolitical tensions disrupt trade flows.
- Energy prices spike, increasing import costs by 5-7%.
- Deficit widens back above -350 million MKD, pressuring the MKD and financial markets.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions remain key downside risks. Any escalation could reverse recent gains by raising import costs and dampening export demand.
MK’s November 2025 Balance of Trade report signals a cautiously optimistic external outlook. The narrowing deficit reflects stronger exports and restrained imports amid tighter monetary policy and fiscal discipline. However, external vulnerabilities persist, requiring vigilant policy calibration.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term trends show MK’s trade deficit averaging around -300 million MKD annually, with cyclical fluctuations tied to commodity prices and regional demand. Structural reforms to diversify exports and improve competitiveness remain critical to sustaining external balance improvements.
Financial Markets & Sentiment
Market sentiment has improved post-release, with the MKD gaining modestly and bond yields easing. Investor confidence hinges on continued trade balance stability and manageable external financing needs.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade data is a key driver for MK’s currency and equity markets. The following tradable symbols historically track MK’s external trade dynamics:
- MKDEUR – The MKD/EUR currency pair reacts strongly to trade balance shifts due to MK’s trade exposure to the Eurozone.
- MKEX – MK’s export-heavy equity index, sensitive to external demand changes.
- BTCUSD – While indirect, Bitcoin’s USD correlation can reflect broader risk sentiment impacting MK’s trade environment.
- USDMKD – The USD/MKD pair captures currency market reactions to trade and monetary policy shifts.
- MKFI – Financial sector index, sensitive to macroeconomic stability linked to trade flows.
Insight: MK Balance of Trade vs. MKDEUR Since 2020
Since 2020, the MKDEUR exchange rate has closely mirrored fluctuations in MK’s trade balance. Periods of deficit widening correspond with MKD depreciation against the EUR, while deficit narrowing aligns with MKD appreciation. This relationship underscores the trade balance’s critical role in currency valuation and external stability.
FAQs
- What is the current Balance of Trade for MK?
- The latest Balance of Trade for MK is a deficit of -297 million MKD as of November 2025, showing improvement from previous months.
- How does the Balance of Trade impact MK’s economy?
- The trade balance affects currency stability, inflation, and external financing needs, influencing overall macroeconomic health.
- What are the risks to MK’s trade balance outlook?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and global demand fluctuations that could widen the deficit.
Key takeaway: MK’s narrowing trade deficit signals improving external conditions but requires ongoing vigilance amid external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 trade deficit of -297 million MKD marks a significant improvement from October’s -356 million MKD and is well below the 12-month average of -320 million MKD. This reversal follows a downward trend in the deficit since May 2025, when the deficit was -258 million MKD but spiked to -373 million MKD in September.
Export growth accelerated by 4.20% MoM, while imports declined by 2.10%, driven largely by lower energy costs and weaker domestic demand. The chart below illustrates the monthly deficit trend over the past eight months, highlighting the recent stabilization and improvement.