North Macedonia’s Trade Deficit Widens in February: Energy and Machinery Imports Lead the Gap
North Macedonia’s balance of trade for February 2026 showed a renewed widening of the deficit, as official data released today confirmed a shortfall of MKD -309 million. This marks a reversal from January’s MKD -295 million and keeps the deficit above the 12-month average of MKD -336 million. The latest figures highlight persistent external pressures and underscore the country’s ongoing import dependency.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Energy imports: +0.12pp
- Machinery and transport: +0.09pp
- Pharmaceuticals: -0.04pp
Policy pulse
The February deficit of MKD -309M remains above the government’s stabilization target of MKD -250M, reflecting persistent trade imbalances. Authorities have reiterated their commitment to narrowing the gap, but the latest reading signals ongoing challenges.Market lens
Currency markets showed mild depreciation pressure on the denar after the release. Investors reacted to the wider deficit by trimming exposure to local assets, while sovereign bond spreads widened slightly. The trade data reinforced concerns about external vulnerabilities, especially as import growth outpaces export recovery.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Export growth: +1.8% MoM
- Import growth: +3.2% MoM
- Net services: -0.02pp
Policy pulse
The central bank’s external stability threshold remains at MKD -250M. February’s print exceeded this level for the second consecutive month, after January’s identical MKD -295M reading. The last time the deficit was below target was November, at MKD -297M.Market lens
Bond yields edged higher as traders priced in persistent current account pressures. The market’s focus shifted to the sustainability of external financing, with the trade gap now running above the 6-month trend.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Deficit narrows below MKD -280M (20–30%)
- Base: Deficit remains between MKD -295M and MKD -320M (50–60%)
- Bearish: Deficit widens beyond MKD -340M (15–25%)
Policy pulse
The government’s stabilization efforts face headwinds from rising import bills and tepid export growth. Fiscal incentives for exporters and targeted import substitution remain under review.Market lens
FX forwards priced in a modest risk premium for the denar. Market participants are watching for signs of improvement in the March data, but the current trajectory keeps risk sentiment cautious.Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Energy and machinery imports remain elevated
- Export recovery lags behind import growth
- Policy interventions yet to yield material impact
Policy pulse
The trade deficit’s persistence above the stabilization threshold underscores the urgency of structural reforms. Authorities face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing external risks.Market lens
Investor sentiment remains cautious amid external imbalances. The market awaits concrete signs of narrowing in the coming months, with the trade gap a key barometer for macro stability.Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade
North Macedonia’s trade data reverberates across multiple asset classes. Currency and fixed income markets are most sensitive to shifts in the trade gap, while global equities and crypto assets respond to broader risk sentiment. The following symbols have shown historical correlation with the country’s trade balance:
- AAPL – Global supply chain exposure makes Apple’s performance sensitive to trade flows in emerging Europe.
- EURUSD – The euro’s strength or weakness often mirrors trade dynamics in the region, impacting North Macedonia’s external position.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk-on/risk-off profile tracks with shifts in emerging market trade sentiment.
| Year | Balance of Trade (MKD M) | EURUSD (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -312 | 1.14 |
| 2021 | -328 | 1.18 |
| 2022 | -347 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | -334 | 1.08 |
| 2024 | -329 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | -336 | 1.07 |
FAQ
- What is North Macedonia’s current balance of trade?
- As of February 2026, North Macedonia’s trade deficit stands at MKD -309 million, reflecting a widening from January’s MKD -295 million.
- How does the February 2026 trade deficit compare to recent months?
- The February shortfall is above January’s level and remains narrower than December’s MKD -394 million, but above the government’s stabilization target.
- Why is the balance of trade important for North Macedonia?
- The balance of trade is a key indicator of external sector health, influencing currency stability, investor sentiment, and policy direction.
North Macedonia’s trade deficit remains a central risk for macro stability, with energy and capital goods imports driving the gap above target.
Updated 3/5/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, “North Macedonia Balance of Trade,” accessed March 5, 2026.
- North Macedonia State Statistical Office, “External Trade Monthly Bulletin,” February 2026.
- National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, “Monetary Policy Report,” Q1 2026.








