Key Takeaways: North Macedonia’s GDP Growth Rate YoY held steady at 3.8% in February, matching December’s figure and outperforming the 12-month average. Growth momentum remains above trend, with services and manufacturing as primary drivers.
North Macedonia GDP Growth Rate YoY: February Print Signals Sustained Momentum
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
- GDP Growth Rate YoY for February: 3.8% (unchanged from December)
- 12-month average: 2.38%
- Lowest in period: 0.9% (March 2024)
- Highest in period: 3.8% (December 2025, February 2026)
Drivers This Month
- Services: +1.2pp
- Manufacturing: +0.9pp
- Construction: +0.4pp
- Agriculture: +0.2pp
Policy Pulse
GDP growth remains above the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia’s medium-term target of 3%. The central bank has maintained a neutral policy stance, citing balanced risks to growth and inflation[1].Market Lens
Markets responded positively to the steady print. The local equity index extended gains, while the MKD held firm against major currencies. Investors interpreted the data as confirmation of North Macedonia’s economic resilience.Foundational Indicators
- February 2026: 3.8%
- December 2025: 3.8%
- September 2025: 3.4%
- June 2025: 3.0%
- March 2025: 3.2%
- December 2024: 3.0%
Drivers This Month
- Household consumption: +0.7pp
- Exports: +0.5pp
- Public investment: +0.3pp
Policy Pulse
The 3.8% YoY growth rate is 0.8 percentage points above the central bank’s reference level. Policymakers have reiterated their commitment to data-driven decisions, emphasizing vigilance amid external uncertainties[1].Market Lens
Bond yields remained stable after the release. Market participants see the growth trajectory as supportive of current monetary settings, with limited pressure for near-term policy shifts.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: North Macedonia’s GDP growth has accelerated sharply over the past year, peaking at 3.8% in both December and February. The upward trajectory, particularly since mid-2024, reflects strong domestic demand and export performance. The plateau at the current level suggests the economy is consolidating recent gains, with no immediate signs of overheating or reversal.
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish: Growth remains at or above 3.8% through mid-2026 (probability: 40%)
- Base: GDP growth moderates to 3.2–3.5% as external demand stabilizes (probability: 50%)
- Bearish: Growth slips below 3% due to external shocks or policy tightening (probability: 10%)
Drivers This Month
- Export orders: +0.5pp
- Tourism receipts: +0.3pp
Policy Pulse
The central bank’s latest statement emphasized continued monitoring of global risks, with a focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability[1].Market Lens
Equities and the MKD are trading in tight ranges post-release. Investors are weighing the sustainability of above-trend growth against potential headwinds from regional developments.Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
North Macedonia’s growth outperformance has reinforced investor confidence. The steady GDP print, coupled with supportive policy signals, positions the country favorably in the regional landscape. However, vigilance is warranted as external risks persist.Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate YoY
North Macedonia’s robust GDP growth has influenced regional equities, currency pairs, and select global assets. The following symbols have shown notable sensitivity to the country’s economic momentum:
This table highlights the relationship between North Macedonia’s GDP growth and Apple’s annual performance. While not directly linked, periods of strong Balkan growth have coincided with positive sentiment for global equities.
- AAPL — Apple’s global supply chain exposure makes it responsive to emerging market growth signals.
- EURUSD — The euro’s performance reflects broader European economic sentiment, including Balkan region data.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s risk sentiment often tracks with emerging market growth surprises.
| Year | GDP Growth Rate YoY (%) | AAPL (YoY % Chg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -4.5 | 80.7 |
| 2021 | 4.0 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 2.1 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | 1.0 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 0.9 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | 3.8 | 22.7 |
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for North Macedonia?
- The most recent figure is 3.8% for February 2026, unchanged from December 2025.
- How does the current GDP growth compare to the 12-month average?
- February’s 3.8% reading is well above the 12-month average of 2.38%, indicating sustained economic momentum.
- What sectors contributed most to North Macedonia’s GDP growth this month?
- Services and manufacturing were the primary contributors, with additional support from construction and agriculture.
North Macedonia’s GDP growth remains robust, with the latest data confirming a period of above-trend expansion.
Updated 3/3/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 3/3/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, Monetary Policy Statement, February 2026.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data, GDP Growth Rate YoY, North Macedonia, 2024–2026.
Momentum has been consistent since mid-2025, with the last four quarters all posting growth above 3%. This sustained expansion signals broad-based strength across key sectors.