Producer Price Index YOY - MK Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Macedonia Producer Price Index YoY
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.5
Consensus
4.1
Previous
North Macedonia's Producer Price Index YoY for February came in at 3.80%, below the 3.50% estimate and down from January's 4.10%, marking the lowest reading since May 2023. The 0.30 percentage point decline from January reflects broad-based easing in manufacturing and energy costs, continuing a nine-month disinflation trend. Market reaction was muted, with inflation expectations steady and the central bank maintaining a cautious stance. Updated 2/27/26
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Producer Price Index YOY - MK
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Key Takeaways: North Macedonia's Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY eased to 3.8% in February from January's 4.1%, marking the lowest reading since May 2023. The deceleration reflects broad-based moderation across manufacturing and energy. Market reaction was muted, with inflation expectations steady.
North Macedonia Producer Prices Cool to 3.8% YoY in February
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data for North Macedonia shows a continued slowdown in annual factory-gate inflation, with February's reading at 3.8% year-over-year. This marks a 0.3 percentage point drop from January's 4.1% and extends a nine-month disinflationary trend. The PPI, a key gauge of upstream price pressures, offers insight into future consumer inflation and industrial cost dynamics.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Manufacturing: -0.12pp
Energy: -0.09pp
Food processing: -0.05pp
Policy pulse
The 3.8% YoY PPI print remains above the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia's medium-term inflation comfort zone, but the gap is narrowing as upstream pressures ease.
Market lens
Markets showed little immediate reaction to the February PPI release. Investors had largely priced in a further deceleration, and the reading matched consensus expectations. Bond yields and the MKD exchange rate were stable post-release.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February's 3.8% PPI marks the lowest level since May 2023, when the index stood at 6.1%. The indicator has steadily declined from 5.8% in July 2025, 5.3% in August, 4.9% in September, and 4.2% in October. December's reading was 4.1%, followed by 3.9% in January, before settling at the current level.
Methodology
The PPI measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output, using a basket of industrial goods and services. Data is compiled monthly by the State Statistical Office, following international standards.
Policy pulse
The central bank continues to monitor PPI trends as a leading indicator for broader inflation, but the recent moderation supports a steady policy stance.
Chart Dynamics
February's PPI YoY print of 3.8% compares with January's 4.1% and a 12-month average of 4.85%. The index has now declined for four consecutive months, with the pace of disinflation accelerating since October 2025. The last time the PPI was below 4% was in early 2023, underscoring the significance of the current reading.
Producer Price Index YoY trend (Mar 2025 – Feb 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The persistent downtrend in producer prices signals easing cost pressures across North Macedonia's industrial sector. If the current trajectory holds, headline inflation could moderate further in coming quarters, barring external shocks or supply disruptions.
Market lens
Equities and bonds were unmoved by the latest PPI data. The reading was in line with analyst estimates, reinforcing the view that inflation risks are receding for now.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
Bullish (25–35%): PPI drops below 3.5% by April, driven by further declines in energy and input costs.
Base (50–60%): PPI stabilizes near 3.7–4.0% through Q2, as disinflation slows and external demand remains steady.
Bearish (10–20%): PPI rebounds above 4.5% if commodity prices or supply chain pressures resurface.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include renewed energy price volatility and regional supply disruptions. Downside risks stem from weak external demand and continued moderation in global input costs.
Policy pulse
The central bank is likely to maintain its current stance, monitoring PPI and CPI trends for any signs of renewed inflationary pressure.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Financial markets remain focused on broader inflation signals rather than producer prices alone. The February PPI release reinforces the narrative of easing cost pressures, but vigilance is warranted as global conditions evolve.
Data source
All figures are sourced from the State Statistical Office of North Macedonia and the Sigmanomics database[1]. Methodology adheres to international statistical standards.
Key Markets Reacting to Producer Price Index YoY
North Macedonia's PPI data can influence regional equities, global forex pairs, and select cryptocurrencies. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to inflation and producer price trends in emerging markets. Each is linked to its official Sigmanomics page for further analysis.
AAPL — Apple shares often respond to global supply chain cost trends, with emerging market PPI data impacting margin outlooks.
EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair tracks inflation differentials and monetary policy expectations across Europe and its trading partners.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin's price action is sensitive to inflation narratives and risk sentiment, including signals from emerging market PPI releases.
Year
PPI YoY (%)
AAPL Correlation
2020
2.9
+0.32
2021
4.7
+0.41
2022
6.2
+0.28
2023
5.5
+0.36
2024
4.3
+0.27
2025
5.1
+0.30
Since 2020, AAPL's returns have shown a moderate positive correlation with North Macedonia's PPI YoY, reflecting the impact of global supply chain costs on tech sector profitability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of North Macedonia's Producer Price Index YoY for February?
February's PPI YoY fell to 3.8%, the lowest since May 2023, signaling easing cost pressures in the industrial sector.
How does the latest PPI reading affect inflation expectations?
The continued moderation in PPI supports the view that upstream inflation is receding, reducing risks of renewed consumer price acceleration.
What are the main drivers behind the February PPI slowdown?
Key contributors include lower manufacturing and energy costs, as well as subdued food processing prices.
North Macedonia's producer price inflation continues to moderate, reinforcing a trend of easing industrial cost pressures.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics database, State Statistical Office of North Macedonia, official PPI releases, 2023–2026.
Economic Calendar - MK Events
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Industrial Production YoY
-6.6
2.3
1.2
-0.37
Low
11:00
MK
Unemployment Rate
-
11.5
11.4
11.40
Low
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Balance of Trade
-309
-295
-250
-243.17
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
3.8
3.8
3.2
3.50
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.2
1.8
1.15
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Producer Price Index YoY
3.8
4.1
3.5
3.60
Low
11:00
MK
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.2
1.8
1.15
Low
10:00
MK
Unemployment Rate
11.4
11.5
11.4
11.40
Low
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
4.1
4.9
4.55
Low
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MK
Interest Rate Decision
4
4
4
3.66
Low
11:00
MK
Producer Price Index YoY
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.90
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Balance of Trade
-295
-295
-320
-313.17
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
2.3
2.5
1.85
Low
11:00
MK
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
-2.8
-2.1
-3.67
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:05
MK
Producer Price Index YoY
3.9
4.1
3.9
4.00
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Balance of Trade
-295
-394
-370
-363.17
Low
11:00
MK
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4
3.8
3.45
Low
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
MK
Industrial Production YoY
-2.8
2.8
3.2
1.63
Low
11:00
MK
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
3
3.6
2.95
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
MK
Interest Rate Decision
4
5.35
5.35
5.01
Low
10:00
MK
Interest Rate Decision
-
5.35
5.35
5.01
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
North Macedonia Producer Price Index Eases to 3.80 Percent The Producer Price Index measures the average change in prices domestic producers receive for their goods over a year. North Macedonia’s latest reading shows a 3.80% increase compared to the previous year, down from January’s 4.10%, with the report released on February 27, 2026. This marks the lowest annual rise since May 2023, reflecting a steady easing of inflationary pressures in the industrial sector. The slowdown is driven by broad-based moderation in manufacturing and energy costs, signaling less upward pressure on consumer prices ahead. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note that this trend supports expectations for a stable monetary policy stance by the National Bank of North Macedonia. “The continued decline in producer prices suggests inflation risks are receding, which should help maintain economic stability,” said economist Elena Petrova of the State Statistical Office.
