November 2025 Inflation Rate MoM Analysis for MO: A Moderating Price Pressure
The latest inflation rate MoM for MO, released on November 21, 2025, shows a notable moderation at 0.03%, down from the previous 0.10%. This report draws from the Sigmanomics database and contextualizes the current inflation dynamics against recent months and historical trends. The analysis explores macroeconomic indicators, monetary and fiscal policy responses, external risks, and market sentiment to provide a forward-looking assessment of MO’s inflation trajectory and its broader economic implications.
Table of Contents
The inflation rate MoM for MO in November 2025 recorded a modest increase of 0.03%, significantly below the 0.10% estimate and the previous month’s 0.10%. This deceleration suggests easing price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly inflation rate has hovered around 0.04%, positioning the current reading slightly below trend but consistent with recent moderation.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.02 percentage points (pp), reflecting steady housing demand.
- Food prices edged up by 0.01 pp, influenced by seasonal supply adjustments.
- Energy prices remained flat, exerting a neutral effect on the headline figure.
- Used car prices declined slightly, subtracting -0.01 pp from inflation.
Policy pulse
The 0.03% inflation rate remains below the central bank’s 0.50% monthly target, signaling subdued inflationary pressures. This reading supports a cautious monetary stance, with no immediate pressure for rate hikes. The central bank’s inflation target band remains intact, reinforcing expectations for steady policy until clearer inflation momentum emerges.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MO currency (MOP) appreciated 0.15% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting market relief at the softer inflation print. Short-term government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates for the next 2 years declined by 10 basis points, signaling tempered inflation expectations.
MO’s inflation dynamics must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 2.30% YoY, supported by robust domestic consumption and export resilience. Unemployment remains low at 3.70%, sustaining wage growth but without triggering overheating.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank has maintained its policy rate at 3.25% since August 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth slowed to 4.10% YoY, reflecting tighter lending standards amid global uncertainty. Liquidity conditions remain ample, with stable interbank rates and moderate volatility in the MO currency.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit forecast of 3.20% of GDP. Government spending on infrastructure and social programs supports aggregate demand, offsetting some inflationary drag from external shocks. Tax revenues have grown 5.50% YoY, providing some fiscal space for stimulus continuity.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
MO faces moderate external risks from global commodity price volatility and regional trade tensions. Recent supply chain disruptions have eased, but geopolitical uncertainties in neighboring regions could pressure import prices. The central bank’s cautious stance reflects these external vulnerabilities.
Drivers this month
- Shelter inflation remains the largest positive contributor but at a slower pace than prior months.
- Food inflation’s seasonal uptick was offset by stable energy prices.
- Used car price declines reflect normalization after earlier pandemic-driven spikes.
This chart highlights a clear trend of moderating inflation in MO, reversing the two-month plateau seen in August and September. The slowdown suggests that inflationary pressures are stabilizing, potentially easing the path for accommodative monetary policy in the near term.
Policy pulse
The inflation print remains well below the central bank’s target range, reinforcing expectations for a steady policy rate. The subdued inflation environment reduces the urgency for tightening, allowing policymakers to monitor external risks and domestic demand conditions closely.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: MO’s 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, while the MOP/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.15%. Inflation breakeven rates fell, reflecting market confidence in contained inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, MO’s inflation trajectory faces a mix of supportive and constraining factors. The base scenario projects inflation averaging 0.04% MoM over the next quarter, consistent with the central bank’s target and stable economic growth.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger domestic demand and wage growth push inflation above 0.06% MoM.
- Commodity prices rebound, lifting energy and food costs.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative but signals tightening in H1 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains stable around 0.04% MoM, supported by balanced demand and supply.
- Fiscal stimulus continues but is offset by moderate external headwinds.
- Monetary policy remains on hold, monitoring inflation and growth data.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Global slowdown and geopolitical risks depress demand, pushing inflation below 0.02% MoM.
- Supply chain improvements reduce cost pressures further.
- Monetary easing considered if deflationary risks materialize.
MO’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.03% signals a clear moderation in price pressures. This aligns with broader macroeconomic stability, supported by steady growth, contained wage inflation, and cautious monetary policy. External risks remain a watchpoint, but current data suggest inflation will remain manageable in the near term. Policymakers and markets will closely monitor upcoming prints for signs of sustained momentum or renewed volatility.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Inflation data in MO typically influence local currency strength, bond yields, and equity market sentiment. The following tradable symbols have historically shown sensitivity to inflation shifts in MO:
- MOPUSD – The MO currency pair reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, impacting import/export valuations.
- MOEX – MO’s equity index, sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- MOCO – A major consumer goods stock, impacted by inflation-driven input costs.
- MOUSD – Cryptocurrency pair reflecting local investor sentiment amid inflation uncertainty.
- USDJPY – A proxy for global risk sentiment, indirectly influenced by MO’s inflation outlook.
Inflation Rate vs. MOEX Index Since 2020
Since 2020, MO’s inflation rate MoM and the MOEX index have shown a moderate positive correlation (r=0.45). Periods of rising inflation often coincide with equity market volatility, reflecting investor sensitivity to monetary policy shifts. The recent inflation moderation aligns with a steady MOEX performance, suggesting market confidence in stable growth and contained inflation risks.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate MoM for MO?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for MO is 0.03%, released on November 21, 2025.
- How does this inflation reading compare historically?
- This is below the previous month’s 0.10% and the 12-month average of 0.04%, indicating a slowdown.
- What are the key risks to MO’s inflation outlook?
- Upside risks include commodity price rebounds and wage growth; downside risks involve global slowdown and supply chain improvements.
Key takeaway: MO’s inflation rate MoM is moderating, supporting a steady monetary policy stance amid balanced growth and manageable external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November inflation rate MoM of 0.03% marks a slowdown from October’s 0.10% and is below the 12-month average of 0.04%. This deceleration is visible in the monthly inflation trend, which peaked at 0.16% in May 2025 before gradually moderating.
Comparing the current print to the past six months, inflation has shown a clear downward trajectory from August’s 0.11% and September’s 0.11%, signaling easing price pressures across key sectors.