Macau Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
The latest inflation rate for Macau (MO) rose to 0.60% year-over-year (YoY) in November 2025, marking a notable increase from October’s 0.47% and continuing a gradual upward trend since mid-year. This report leverages data from the Sigmanomics database to compare recent inflation dynamics with historical readings, assess macroeconomic implications, and explore forward-looking scenarios amid evolving monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical conditions.
Table of Contents
Macau’s inflation rate climbed to 0.60% YoY in November 2025, up from 0.47% in October and reversing a subdued inflation environment earlier this year. This marks the highest inflation reading since May 2025’s 0.23%, reflecting a steady recovery in price pressures. The inflation trajectory remains modest compared to regional peers, yet signals emerging upward momentum amid easing pandemic disruptions and rebounding tourism.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
- Food and beverage prices rose by 0.12 pp, driven by supply chain normalization.
- Transport and energy costs added 0.10 pp, reflecting global commodity price shifts.
- Used car prices exerted a mild downward drag of -0.05 pp.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate remains below the Macau Monetary Authority’s implicit target range of 1.00%–2.00%. This suggests accommodative monetary policy can persist without immediate tightening, supporting economic recovery. However, the upward trend warrants close monitoring to preempt overheating risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MOP/USD currency pair showed a mild appreciation of 0.10% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in stable inflation. Short-term government bond yields edged up by 5 basis points, signaling modest inflation risk repricing.
Macau’s inflation rate of 0.60% YoY in November 2025 contrasts with a low of -0.16% in March 2025, highlighting a recovery phase. The 12-month average inflation stands near 0.20%, underscoring a historically low inflation environment. Core macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment, and wage trends provide context for inflation dynamics.
GDP and labor market
GDP growth for Q3 2025 registered at 3.20% YoY, supported by tourism and gaming sector rebounds. Unemployment declined to 2.80%, the lowest since early 2024, boosting consumer spending power and upward price pressures.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Macau Monetary Authority has maintained a steady policy stance with the base interest rate at 1.25%. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with ample liquidity and stable credit growth. Inflation below target supports this stance, though rising commodity prices pose upside risks.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs. The budget surplus narrowed slightly due to increased expenditures, but fiscal discipline remains intact. This supports domestic demand, indirectly influencing inflation.
Drivers this month
- Shelter: 0.18 pp
- Food & Beverage: 0.12 pp
- Transport & Energy: 0.10 pp
- Used Cars: -0.05 pp
Policy pulse
The inflation rate remains below the 1.00% threshold that typically triggers monetary tightening. The central bank is likely to maintain current rates, balancing growth support with inflation containment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: MOP/USD appreciated 0.10%, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting moderate inflation risk repricing.
This chart highlights Macau’s inflation trending upward after a prolonged low-inflation period. The acceleration suggests improving demand and cost pressures, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy considerations if the trend continues.
Looking ahead, Macau’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors, including external shocks, fiscal stimulus, and global commodity prices. We outline three scenarios with assigned probabilities:
Bullish scenario (30%)
Inflation accelerates to 1.50% by mid-2026, driven by sustained tourism growth, wage increases, and rising global energy prices. Monetary tightening may begin in late 2026 to prevent overheating.
Base scenario (50%)
Inflation stabilizes around 0.80%–1.00% through 2026, supported by moderate demand and stable commodity prices. Monetary policy remains accommodative with gradual normalization.
Bearish scenario (20%)
Inflation stalls or declines below 0.50% due to renewed external shocks, such as geopolitical tensions or a slowdown in Chinese demand. Monetary easing or fiscal stimulus may be reintroduced.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks to inflation. Conversely, easing trade frictions could boost demand and prices.
Structural & long-run trends
Macau’s long-term inflation remains subdued due to its small, service-oriented economy and currency peg to the Hong Kong dollar. Demographic shifts and technological adoption may further moderate inflationary pressures.
Macau’s inflation rate of 0.60% YoY in November 2025 marks a cautious recovery from earlier deflationary trends. While still below the central bank’s target, the upward momentum reflects improving economic fundamentals and easing supply constraints. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and preventing inflation overshoot amid external uncertainties. Market participants should monitor inflation drivers closely, as shifts could influence monetary policy and asset valuations.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in Macau typically impacts currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic growth. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends and monetary policy shifts in the region:
- USDMOP – The Macau pataca’s exchange rate against the US dollar reacts to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- 0700.HK – Tencent Holdings, a major regional tech stock, sensitive to economic growth and inflation expectations.
- 9988.HK – Alibaba Group, reflecting consumer demand and inflationary pressures in Greater China.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge, reacts to inflation surprises and monetary policy shifts.
- HKDMOP – The Hong Kong dollar to Macau pataca pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows influenced by inflation and policy.
Inflation Rate vs. USDMOP Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Macau’s inflation rate and the USDMOP exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with a slight appreciation of the Macau pataca against the US dollar, reflecting expectations of monetary tightening. For example, the inflation uptick from 0.12% in August 2025 to 0.60% in November 2025 corresponded with a 0.30% pataca appreciation. This relationship underscores the importance of inflation data in currency market dynamics.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate YoY for Macau?
- The latest inflation rate for Macau is 0.60% year-over-year as of November 2025.
- How does Macau’s inflation compare historically?
- Inflation has risen from a low of -0.16% in March 2025 to 0.60% in November, indicating a recovery from deflationary pressures.
- What are the main drivers of inflation in Macau?
- Shelter, food and beverage, and energy costs are the primary contributors to recent inflation increases.
Takeaway: Macau’s inflation is trending upward but remains moderate, supporting continued accommodative policy with vigilance for emerging risks.
USDMOP – Macau pataca to US dollar exchange rate, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy.
0700.HK – Tencent Holdings, regional tech stock influenced by economic growth and inflation.
9988.HK – Alibaba Group, reflecting consumer demand and inflation pressures in Greater China.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge, reacts to inflation data and policy shifts.
HKDMOP – Hong Kong dollar to Macau pataca pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows influenced by inflation.
The inflation rate of 0.60% in November 2025 exceeds October’s 0.47% and the 12-month average of 0.20%. This upward movement signals a reversal from the deflationary pressures seen in early 2025, such as the -0.16% reading in March.
Price increases in shelter, food, and energy sectors have driven this acceleration. The inflation trend is consistent with improving economic activity and easing supply constraints.