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Malta Balance of Trade fell to -314.8M in April 2026, released June 2026, down 56.9M from March's -257.9M reading. The reading matched the -300M consensus. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -208.9M, vs -131.95M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 7 months.
across last 12 releases
Jun 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Balance of Trade (Malta) was reported at -314.80 million in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -300.00 million by 14.80 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -257.90 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -320.01 million, ranging from -904.00 million to -72.20 million across 11 releases.
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -243.87 million, down from the prior three at -183.30 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 205.39 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 92.55 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -349.50 million.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 113.46 million.
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -314.8 M, consensus -300 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -259.5 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -209.4 M.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.65 | Low | ||