Malta Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Table of Contents
- Big-Picture Snapshot
- Foundational Indicators
- Chart Dynamics
- Forward Outlook
- Closing Thoughts
- Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Malta’s inflation rate for November 2025 came in at 2.50% year-over-year (YoY), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure slightly exceeds the market estimate of 2.30% and edges up from October’s 2.40%. Over the past 12 months, inflation has fluctuated between 1.80% and 2.70%, reflecting a moderate but persistent rise in consumer prices.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp) to inflation, reflecting global oil price volatility.
- Housing and utilities added 0.18 pp, driven by rising rents and electricity tariffs.
- Food prices remained stable, contributing 0.05 pp, with supply chain pressures easing.
Policy pulse
The 2.50% inflation rate remains slightly above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of close to but below 2%, keeping monetary policy on alert. The Central Bank of Malta is expected to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate market reaction was muted. The EUR/MTP currency pair showed a minor 0.10% appreciation, while 2-year government bond yields held steady near 1.20%. Breakeven inflation rates in the region remain anchored, signaling market confidence in inflation stability.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for Malta’s inflation trajectory. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was a solid 3.10% YoY, supporting consumer demand. Unemployment remains low at 4.20%, sustaining wage pressures that feed into inflation. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in the first three quarters, reflecting prudent government spending and improved tax revenues.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Central Bank of Malta continues to align with ECB policy, keeping key interest rates at 3.50%. Credit growth remains moderate at 4.50% YoY, supporting investment without overheating the economy. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months hover around 2.30%, consistent with the current print.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal discipline has helped contain inflationary pressures. The government’s budget for 2025 includes targeted subsidies for energy and housing, cushioning vulnerable households from price shocks. However, rising public debt at 65% of GDP warrants caution in future spending.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Malta’s open economy is sensitive to external shocks. Recent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have kept energy prices volatile. The Eurozone’s inflation dynamics also influence Malta, given close trade and financial linkages.
What This Chart Tells Us: Malta’s inflation is trending upward but within a manageable range. The recent uptick signals persistent cost pressures, especially in energy and housing, but no runaway inflation. This suggests a balanced inflation environment heading into 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/MTP currency pair appreciated 0.10% post-release, while 2-year government bond yields remained stable near 1.20%. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, indicating market confidence in inflation containment.
Looking ahead, Malta’s inflation outlook balances upside risks from energy prices and wage growth against downside risks from fiscal tightening and external shocks. The Sigmanomics database suggests three scenarios for 2026 inflation:
- Bullish (20% probability): Inflation moderates to 1.80% YoY as energy prices ease and supply chains normalize.
- Base case (60% probability): Inflation stabilizes near 2.30% YoY, supported by steady wage growth and moderate fiscal stimulus.
- Bearish (20% probability): Inflation rises above 3.00% YoY due to renewed geopolitical tensions and energy cost spikes.
Structural & long-run trends
Malta’s inflation is influenced by structural factors such as housing supply constraints and integration within the Eurozone. Long-run trends point to gradual convergence with Eurozone inflation targets, aided by fiscal prudence and monetary alignment. However, demographic shifts and climate-related energy transitions may introduce new inflation dynamics.
Malta’s November 2025 inflation rate of 2.50% YoY signals a stable but watchful macroeconomic environment. The slight overshoot above estimates underscores persistent cost pressures, particularly in energy and housing. Monetary and fiscal policies remain calibrated to balance growth and inflation control amid external uncertainties.
Financial markets have so far digested the data calmly, reflecting confidence in policy frameworks. However, vigilance is warranted given geopolitical risks and potential energy price shocks. Structural trends suggest inflation will hover near target levels, but flexibility in policy response will be key to managing future volatility.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Malta’s inflation data typically influences several key markets, including local equities, the EUR/MTP currency pair, and government bonds. These markets respond to inflation-driven shifts in monetary policy expectations, consumer spending, and investment flows. Additionally, correlated global assets provide insight into broader sentiment shifts tied to inflation trends.
- GO: Malta’s leading telecom stock, sensitive to consumer spending and inflation-driven cost pressures.
- EURMTP: The euro to Maltese lira currency pair, directly impacted by inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- MIA: Malta International Airport shares, reflecting tourism demand affected by inflation and economic conditions.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reacts to inflation expectations as a hedge asset.
- USDEUR: The US dollar to euro pair, influenced by Eurozone inflation data and ECB policy outlook.
Inflation vs. GO Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, Malta’s inflation rate and GO stock price have shown a positive correlation, with inflation spikes often coinciding with periods of increased operational costs for GO. The 2025 inflation rise to 2.50% YoY aligns with a modest correction in GO’s share price, reflecting investor concerns over margin pressures.
FAQs
- What is the current inflation rate YoY for Malta?
- The latest inflation rate for Malta is 2.50% year-over-year as of November 2025.
- How does Malta’s inflation compare historically?
- Inflation has ranged from 1.80% to 2.70% over the past year, with the current rate slightly above the 12-month average of 2.20%.
- What are the main risks to Malta’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policy adjustments.
Takeaway: Malta’s inflation is stable but slightly elevated, requiring careful policy calibration amid external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 2.50% YoY in Malta is up from 2.40% in October and above the 12-month average of 2.20%. This marks a modest rebound after a slight dip in October, reversing a two-month decline from the 2.70% peak in September.
Energy and housing costs remain the primary drivers, while food and transportation inflation have stabilized. The chart below illustrates the steady upward trend since early 2025, with seasonal fluctuations dampened by stable core inflation components.