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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalawiMalawi Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 24.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Malawi Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 24.3% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.5% from March's 23.8% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 27.13%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 23.95%, vs 26.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
24.3
Actual
23.4
Consensus
23.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 23.3
Actual: 24.3
Error: -1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Malawi) was reported at 24.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 23.4% by 0.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 23.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 26.87%, ranging from 24.1% to 29.1% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 24.43%, down from the prior three at 27.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.61%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.42%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 28.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.67%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - MW
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Malawi
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 24.3 %, consensus 23.4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 23.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 24.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.