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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Auto Exports YoY fell to 1.7% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Auto Exports YoY fell to 1.7% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 9.7% from April's 11.4% reading. The print exceeded the 1.6% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Exports YoY averaged 7.8%, vs -5.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
1.6
Consensus
11.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 8.85
Actual: 1.7
Error: +7.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Auto Exports YoY (Mexico) was reported at 1.7% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.6% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.59%, ranging from -14.6% to 14% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.9%, up from the prior three at -5.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.86%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.31%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Auto Exports YoY has averaged 3.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/MXN, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Auto Exports YoY - MX
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About Auto Exports YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Auto Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the value of automobile exports from a particular country. It provides valuable insights into the performance of the automotive industry and the overall economy, as well as the competitiveness of a country's auto exports in the global market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry experts as it can impact trade balances, foreign exchange rates, and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 11.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.