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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Auto Exports YoY fell to -9.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Auto Exports YoY fell to -9.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 10.9% from May's 1.7% reading. The reading missed the -4.2% consensus by 5.0%. Auto Exports YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Auto Exports YoY averaged 5.77%, vs -5.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-9.2
Actual
-4.2
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.92 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.55
Actual: -9.2
Error: +8.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Auto Exports YoY (Mexico) was reported at -9.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.2% by 5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.73%, ranging from -14.6% to 11.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.3%, up from the prior three at -5.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.26%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 7.6%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Auto Exports YoY has averaged 2.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.93%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Auto Exports YoY - MX
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About Auto Exports YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Auto Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the value of automobile exports from a particular country. It provides valuable insights into the performance of the automotive industry and the overall economy, as well as the competitiveness of a country's auto exports in the global market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry experts as it can impact trade balances, foreign exchange rates, and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -9.2 %, consensus -4.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 11.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |