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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Auto Exports YoY fell to -11.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Auto Exports YoY fell to -11.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 13.2% from August's 1.3% reading. The reading missed the -2.9% consensus by 9.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -1.62%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Exports YoY averaged -4.2%, vs 1.3% in the prior 3-month window. Auto Exports YoY is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-11.9
Actual
-2.9
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.97 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -4.6
Actual: -11.9
Error: +7.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Auto Exports YoY (Mexico) was reported at -11.9% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2.9% by 9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.66%, ranging from -14.6% to 11.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.77%, down from the prior three at 1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.56%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 7.83%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Auto Exports YoY has averaged -2.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.98%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Auto Exports YoY - MX
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About Auto Exports YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Auto Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the value of automobile exports from a particular country. It provides valuable insights into the performance of the automotive industry and the overall economy, as well as the competitiveness of a country's auto exports in the global market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry experts as it can impact trade balances, foreign exchange rates, and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -11.9 %, consensus -2.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -9.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |