Auto Exports Yoy - MX Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Mexico Auto Exports YoY
-0.3
Actual
-2
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Mexico’s Auto Exports YoY for October 2025 came in at -0.30%, beating the consensus estimate of -2.00% and marking a slowdown from September’s 1.40% growth. This near-stagnant reading signals a sector in mild contraction after volatile swings earlier in the year, reflecting ongoing supply chain normalization and mixed demand. Looking ahead, cautious monetary policy and geopolitical risks may temper recovery, while structural shifts toward EV production and nearshoring offer potential growth avenues. Updated 10/7/25
Auto Exports Yoy - MX
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Mexico Auto Exports YoY: October 2025 Release and Macro Implications
Key takeaways: Mexico’s auto exports contracted by 0.30% YoY in October 2025, outperforming the -2.00% consensus estimate and marking a slowdown from September’s 1.40% growth. This signals a near-stagnant export environment amid global supply chain normalization and mixed demand signals. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks weigh on near-term prospects, while structural shifts toward EV production and nearshoring offer medium-term growth potential.
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows Mexico’s auto exports declined by 0.30% year-on-year in October 2025. This reading, released on October 7, 2025, contrasts with the previous month’s 1.40% growth and beats the market consensus estimate of -2.00%. The data reflects a volatile export environment influenced by global demand fluctuations, supply chain adjustments, and evolving trade dynamics.
Drivers this month
Global semiconductor shortages easing, reducing production bottlenecks.
Moderate demand from the US and Canada, Mexico’s largest auto export markets.
Rising input costs and logistical challenges limiting upside potential.
Policy pulse
Mexico’s central bank has maintained a cautious monetary stance, with interest rates steady at 11.25%, aiming to curb inflation without stifling growth. The subdued export growth aligns with tighter financial conditions and a cautious global trade outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Mexican peso (MXN) appreciated modestly by 0.20% against the USD following the release, reflecting relief that the contraction was less severe than expected. Equity markets showed muted response, with the MEXBOL index edging up 0.10% in early trading.
Mexico’s auto export sector is a critical component of its manufacturing base and trade balance. The October 2025 reading of -0.30% YoY contrasts with the sharp declines seen earlier this year, such as February’s -13.70% and May’s -10.90%, signaling a partial recovery but persistent headwinds.
Historical context
February 2025: -13.70% YoY, reflecting pandemic aftershocks and supply chain disruptions.
July 2025: 14.00% YoY, a peak driven by pent-up demand and inventory restocking.
September 2025: 1.40% YoY, indicating slowing momentum ahead of the current print.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Banxico’s high interest rates have increased borrowing costs for manufacturers, dampening investment in capacity expansion. Inflation remains above target at 5.80%, pressuring real incomes and consumer demand in key export markets.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The Mexican government’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with infrastructure spending aimed at improving logistics and port efficiency. However, budget constraints limit large-scale stimulus, keeping near-term support for exports modest.
The October 2025 auto exports YoY figure of -0.30% marks a slowdown from September’s 1.40% but is a clear improvement from the steep declines earlier in the year. The 12-month average growth rate stands at approximately -0.40%, indicating a stabilization phase after volatile swings.
Comparing the current print to the last six months reveals a pattern of oscillation between modest growth and contraction, reflecting external shocks and internal adjustments in Mexico’s auto sector.
Drivers this month
Improved semiconductor availability supporting production volumes.
Weaker demand from Europe and Asia offsetting gains in North America.
Monetary tightening in the US and Mexico has increased financing costs, while trade policy uncertainties, including USMCA adjustments, add caution among exporters.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The USDMXN pair fell 0.30% post-release, reflecting a stronger peso. The F stock, representing a major auto manufacturer with significant Mexican production, saw a 0.50% uptick in pre-market trading.
This chart signals a sector in transition, trending toward stabilization after a turbulent year. The near-zero growth suggests cautious optimism but highlights vulnerability to external shocks and policy shifts.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s auto exports face a complex mix of opportunities and risks. The global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) and nearshoring trends could boost medium-term growth. However, persistent inflation, tighter monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Strong US demand and easing supply constraints drive 5-7% YoY export growth.
Successful EV production ramp-up attracts new investments.
Stable trade relations under USMCA support export expansion.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Modest growth of 1-2% YoY as supply chains normalize but global demand remains uneven.
Monetary policy remains tight, limiting investment but containing inflation.
Geopolitical risks contained but continue to inject volatility.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Global recession or trade disruptions cause a renewed export contraction of 3-5% YoY.
Rising input costs and logistical bottlenecks persist.
Currency volatility undermines competitiveness.
Mexico’s auto exports are at a critical inflection point. The October 2025 YoY contraction of 0.30% reflects a sector grappling with external shocks and internal adjustments. While the near-term outlook is cautious, structural trends such as EV adoption and nearshoring offer promising growth avenues. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to sustain Mexico’s competitive edge in global auto manufacturing.
Key Markets Likely to React to Auto Exports YoY
The Mexican auto export data traditionally influences several key markets. The F stock (Ford Motor Company) is closely tied to Mexico’s auto output. The MEXBOL index reflects broader market sentiment on manufacturing and exports. Currency pairs like USDMXN respond swiftly to export data, impacting trade competitiveness. Additionally, the BTCUSD pair can reflect risk sentiment shifts tied to macroeconomic trends. Lastly, the GM stock is another auto sector bellwether with exposure to Mexican production.
Insight Box: Auto Exports vs. USDMXN Since 2020
Since 2020, Mexico’s auto exports and the USDMXN currency pair have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of export growth typically coincide with peso appreciation, enhancing export competitiveness. For example, the July 2025 14% export surge aligned with a 5% MXN appreciation. This relationship underscores the importance of currency stability for Mexico’s export sector resilience.
FAQs
What does the latest Mexico Auto Exports YoY data indicate?
The data shows a slight contraction of 0.30% YoY in October 2025, signaling near-stagnant export activity amid mixed global demand.
How does this data impact Mexico’s economy?
Auto exports are vital for Mexico’s trade balance and manufacturing sector; subdued growth may slow GDP expansion and employment gains.
What are the main risks affecting Mexico’s auto exports?
Key risks include global supply chain disruptions, monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and currency volatility.
Takeaway: Mexico’s auto exports are stabilizing but face a delicate balance of global demand, policy, and structural shifts that will define their trajectory through 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Key Markets Likely to React to Auto Exports YoY
F – Major US automaker with significant Mexican production exposure.
MEXBOL – Mexico’s main stock index, sensitive to export sector performance.
BTCUSD – Crypto pair indicative of global risk sentiment impacting emerging markets.
GM – Another key automaker with production ties to Mexico.
Economic Calendar - MX Events
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
47.3
48.5
48
47.45
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.47
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
51.9
53.1
53
52.87
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.8
-1
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, September 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-833.94
-830.08
-870
-909.54
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.868
-0.072
-0.5
-1.35
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.5
10.75
10.5
10.46
Medium
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
-0.03
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
5.16
4.73
4.75
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.95
3.98
3.97
3.95
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.1
0.23
0.21
Low
Monday, September 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.6
0
0.4
0.45
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
3.8
-0.6
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.6
-3.1
-0.5
-1.42
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.20
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.1
2.7
1.2
1.85
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
-0.6
1.8
1.4
1.17
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
-0.4
1.2
1.6
1.20
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
2.7
3.3
2.9
3.65
Low
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.1
-0.7
1.1
1.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.52
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.05
4.01
4.01
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.6
47.1
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.32
0.23
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.01
1.05
0.09
0.11
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.99
5.57
5.09
5.10
Medium
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
1.7
-2.7
-2.5
-3.70
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
8.3
2.7
1.9
2.72
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1
1.3
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
-1.3
6
3
3.03
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.92
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.5
49.6
49.5
48.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.2
53
52.8
52.67
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
227
226
228
228.00
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-830.08
-693.24
-750
-789.54
Low
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.072
-1.037
-1.35
-2.20
Medium
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
3639
-21374
-1760
436.50
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.98
4.02
4.06
4.04
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.22
Medium
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-0.6
1.6
0.9
1.02
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.03
0.71
0.12
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.18
0.19
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.16
5.61
5.31
5.33
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-3.9
0.3
-1.7
-2.62
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
0
0.2
0.10
Low
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.9
47.4
47
47.43
Medium
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
1.1
-0.1
-0.07
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
10.75
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.32
0.22
0.29
0.29
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.05
4.13
4.02
4.02
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
1.05
0.38
1.02
1.03
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
5.57
4.98
5.57
5.58
Medium
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
-1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
2.7
3.8
2
2.82
Low
Friday, August 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-693.24
-525.47
-500
-539.54
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
6
18.3
8.4
8.43
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.1
51.2
50.65
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
52.9
52.9
53
52.87
Medium
10:45
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
226
223
225
225.00
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.2
1.6
2
2.02
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-1.037
1.991
1
0.15
Medium
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.02
4.17
4.02
4.00
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
5.61
4.78
5.27
5.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.21
0.39
0.41
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.17
Low
Monday, July 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.6
5.4
1.4
1.52
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
3.2
3.5
2.58
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
1
5.1
1.2
1.23
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.7
-0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.5
46.9
46
46.43
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.22
0.17
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.13
4.21
4.15
4.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.98
4.69
4.84
4.85
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
3.8
4.9
6
6.82
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.38
-0.19
0.24
0.26
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
3.3
13
12
10.80
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
223
221
223
223.00
Low
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.25
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
18.1
3
17.7
17.73
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.1
51.2
51.5
50.95
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53
53.7
53.4
53.27
Medium
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-525.47
-334.14
-310
-349.54
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.72
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
1.991
-3.746
-2.04
-2.89
Medium
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.78
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
-0.21
0.14
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.15
0.18
0.16
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.17
4.31
4.19
4.17
Low
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
5.4
-1.3
3.8
3.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.25
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0
-0.3
-0.40
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
-1.7
1.5
0.58
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
5.1
-3
4.4
4.43
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.21
4.37
4.31
4.31
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.65
4.79
4.80
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.17
0.21
0.1
0.10
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.19
0.2
-0.1
-0.08
Medium
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
13
14.4
12
10.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
4.9
21.7
5
5.82
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.7
47.2
47
47.43
Medium
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
3
12.5
11.8
11.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.35
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
51
50.6
50.05
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
53.7
54.1
54
53.87
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
221
220
219
219.00
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-334.14
-437.2
-345.2
-384.74
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.62
Medium
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
Current Account
-12582
11817
-13700
-11503.50
Low
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-3.746
2.098
-0.8
-1.65
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0.3
1.5
0.8
0.85
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.13
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.62
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.21
0.09
-0.22
-0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.31
4.39
4.31
4.29
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
4.63
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
-1.3
4.5
1.1
1.22
Low
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-1.7
3
0
-0.92
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.30
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.62
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
-3
3.3
-1.2
-1.17
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.29
0.19
0.21
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.37
4.55
4.4
4.40
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.21
0.44
0.24
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.65
4.42
4.63
4.64
Medium
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
21.7
-12.8
-8
-7.18
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.3
47.2
47.63
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
14.4
4.9
5
3.80
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
12.5
15.3
12.1
12.13
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.6
2.5
2.1
2.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.1
0
-0.02
Medium
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.42
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
2.098
-0.585
0.7
-0.15
Medium
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.48
4.48
4.50
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.27
-0.03
-0.01
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.16
0.33
0.16
0.14
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.39
4.69
4.39
4.37
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
4.4
1.9
1.8
1.92
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
1.4
-0.9
0.2
0.25
Low
Friday, April 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.6
0.3
0.20
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
3
-0.8
-1
-1.92
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
3.3
2.7
3.5
3.53
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.29
0.09
0.36
0.38
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.55
4.64
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.42
4.4
4.5
4.51
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.49
0.51
0.51
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
-12.8
7.8
318
318.82
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
4.9
23.5
272
270.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.3
47.2
43
43.43
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
220
222
225
225.00
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0.1
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
15.3
13.4
11.2
11.23
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.3
53
52.87
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.3
52.5
51.95
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:30
MX
Fiscal Balance
-399.7
-159.14
-80
-119.54
Low
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.5
2.9
2.8
2.82
Medium
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-0.585
-4.315
-0.2
-1.05
Medium
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.27
-0.1
0.28
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.48
4.45
4.45
4.47
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2
1.1
2.6
2.72
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.6
0
0.3
0.35
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.33
0.24
0.26
0.24
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.69
4.63
4.62
4.60
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11
11.25
11
10.96
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.6
-0.9
0.4
0.30
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-0.2
1.2
0.28
Low
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Private Spending QoQ
0.9
1.2
-0.2
-0.42
Low
12:00
MX
Private Spending YoY
5.1
4.3
1.9
2.65
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand QoQ
0.3
0
-0.1
-0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Aggregate Demand YoY
2.6
2.7
0.9
1.55
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.9
0
2.1
2.13
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
-0.7
0.4
0.42
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.64
4.76
4.62
4.62
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.4
0.49
0.49
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.09
0.89
0.11
0.13
Medium
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.88
4.42
4.43
Medium
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
7.8
9.6
9.9
10.72
Low
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47
47.1
47.5
47.93
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
22.6
6.8
6.6
5.40
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
13.4
19.2
18
18.03
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
0
-1.3
0.4
0.45
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-159.14
-1052.62
-650
-689.54
Low
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.3
50.2
49.8
49.25
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.3
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
11:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
222
214
208
208.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.82
Medium
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
-4.315
4.242
-2.286
-3.14
Medium
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:20
MX
Current Account
11662
908
5000
7196.50
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
1.1
2.3
0.7
0.82
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.49
0.15
0.17
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.26
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.63
4.78
4.67
4.65
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.45
4.9
4.7
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.5
3.3
2.4
2.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
-0.2
2.7
2.5
1.58
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
-0.9
0.1
0.2
0.10
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-0.7
-1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
0
2.9
2
2.03
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Interest Rate Decision
11.25
11.25
11.25
11.21
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.76
5.09
4.72
4.72
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.90
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.44
0.37
0.37
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.88
4.66
4.88
4.89
Medium
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
47.1
46.8
46.4
46.83
Medium
12:00
MX
Auto Exports YoY
6.8
16
14
12.80
Low
12:00
MX
Auto Production YoY
9.6
-9.9
-2.4
-1.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
-1.3
1.7
0.7
0.75
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
19.2
25.5
21.3
21.33
Low
10:00
MX
Foreign Exchange Reserves
214
211
207
207.00
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
MX
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.2
52
51.4
50.85
Low
12:00
MX
Business Confidence
54.5
54.4
54.3
54.17
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
MX
Fiscal Balance
-1052.62
-762.3
-1000
-1039.54
Low
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.4
3.3
3.1
3.12
Medium
12:00
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Balance of Trade
4.242
0.63
1.4
0.55
Medium
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.62
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.25
0.46
0.25
0.23
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity YoY
2.3
4.2
3.2
3.32
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.78
5.19
4.78
4.76
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.46
4.78
4.80
Low
12:00
MX
Economic Activity MoM
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.15
Low
12:00
MX
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM
0.49
0.52
0.38
0.40
Low
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.28
Low
12:00
MX
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.40
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Industrial Production YoY
2.8
5.6
4.8
4.83
Low
12:00
MX
Industrial Production MoM
-1
0.6
0.3
0.32
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment YoY
25.5
21.9
22.8
22.83
Low
12:00
MX
Gross Fixed Investment MoM
1.9
-1.5
0.3
0.35
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:10
MX
Auto Exports YoY
16
21.7
23
21.80
Low
14:10
MX
Auto Production YoY
-9.9
18.1
17.5
18.32
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate YoY
4.66
4.32
4.55
4.56
Medium
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.44
0.26
0.5
0.50
Low
12:00
MX
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5.09
5.3
5.15
5.15
Low
12:00
MX
Inflation Rate MoM
0.71
0.64
0.61
0.63
Medium
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
MX
Consumer Confidence
46.8
47.3
48
48.43
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Mexico Auto Exports YoY Decline Narrows in October 2025 October Auto Exports YoY Show Slight Contraction Auto Exports YoY measures the annual percentage change in Mexico’s vehicle shipments abroad, reflecting trade health and manufacturing trends. Fast facts for October 2025: the latest reading is -0.30%, improving from September’s 1.40% growth and beating the -2.00% forecast. This data was released on October 7, 2025. Mexico’s Auto Exports YoY contracted by 0.30% in October, signaling a near-stagnant export environment amid ongoing global uncertainties. Despite the slight decline, this result outperformed expectations and suggests resilience in Mexico’s auto sector as supply chain issues ease. JPMorgan analysts note that “the modest contraction reflects a cautious recovery phase, with demand from North America stabilizing but offset by weaker markets elsewhere.” Monetary tightening in both Mexico and the US continues to pressure costs, while structural shifts toward electric vehicle production offer a promising medium-term outlook. The Mexican peso strengthened modestly following the release, indicating market relief that the contraction was less severe than feared. Overall, the data points to a sector balancing headwinds with emerging opportunities in a complex global trade landscape.
The October 2025 auto exports YoY figure of -0.30% marks a slowdown from September’s 1.40% but is a clear improvement from the steep declines earlier in the year. The 12-month average growth rate stands at approximately -0.40%, indicating a stabilization phase after volatile swings.
Comparing the current print to the last six months reveals a pattern of oscillation between modest growth and contraction, reflecting external shocks and internal adjustments in Mexico’s auto sector.