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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Forecast batch: 10/6/26
USD/MXN's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±1.6% over 7 days, widening to ±3.0% over 28. Each horizon's current status is below.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (r=+0.74), Fiscal Balance (r=+0.53)
Inversely correlated: Interest Rate Decision (r=-0.66), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.60), Inflation Rate MoM (r=-0.53), Economic Activity MoM (r=-0.50), GDP Growth (Annual %) (r=-0.50), GDP Per Capita (Current US$) (r=-0.50)
As of October 6, 2026, USD/MXN is trading at 17.9475. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The USD/MXN forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Mexican Peso. The USD/MXN pair closed at 17.9475 on October 6, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.91% from the previous close of 18.1115.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 6.10%, ranging between 16.8503 and 18.4322. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 17.6938. The 14-day RSI stands at 66.2, in the upper part of its range. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Mid Month Inflation Rate MOM shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, positively correlated (r = +0.74).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.53%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Across the past 52 weeks, the pair has traded between 16.8503 and 18.4322, with the current price near the midrange of that range.
Daily-return volatility of 0.53% runs elevated for this pair, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. USD/MXN is currently trading 1.43% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 66.2, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the Mid Month Inflation Rate MOM indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with USD/MXN (r = +0.74) and is worth watching for context.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.