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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of non-overlapping windows the 60% band held (per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no rows yet) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
2 of 7 models in band
± 1.68% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent trend across 2H/1D/1W.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
USD/MXN's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±1.2% over 7 days, widening to ±2.3% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · 68.3% over 82 windows → full record
Across 82 graded 14-day windows since 27 Jul 2026, USD/MXN's expected-range band contained price 68.3% of the time (stated rate: 80%).
As of October 31, 2026, USD/MXN is trading at 18.7873. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The USD/MXN forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Mexican Peso. The USD/MXN pair closed at 18.7873 on October 31, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.69% from the previous close of 18.9176.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 3.66%, ranging between 17.9106 and 18.9303. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 18.5923. The 14-day RSI stands at 66.6, in the upper part of its range. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Mid Month Inflation Rate MOM (MX) shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, positively correlated (r = +0.71).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.53%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Over the past 52 weeks, USD/MXN traded between 16.8503 (Sep 7, 2026) and 18.9303 (Oct 30, 2026); the current price sits 0.8% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 0.53% runs elevated for this pair, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. USD/MXN is currently trading 1.05% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 66.6, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (MX) indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with USD/MXN (r = +0.71) and is worth watching for context.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (MX) (r=+0.71)
Inversely correlated: Interest Rate Decision (MX) (r=-0.66), Producer Price Index YoY (MX) (r=-0.51), GDP Growth (Annual %) (MX) (r=-0.50), GDP Per Capita (Current US$) (MX) (r=-0.50), Trade (% of GDP) (MX) (r=-0.50), Private Spending QoQ (MX) (r=-0.50), Private Spending YoY (MX) (r=-0.50)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.