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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Balance of Trade fell to -0.85B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Mexico Balance of Trade fell to -0.85B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 4.91B from June's 4.06B reading. The reading missed the 3B consensus by 3.85B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 4 consecutive months. The reading is in the 24th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.848
Actual
3
Consensus
4.06
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.19 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.91
Actual: -0.85
Error: +4.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Mexico) was reported at -0.85 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.00 billion by 3.85 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.06 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.02 billion, ranging from -6.48 billion to 4.52 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.59 billion, up from the prior three at -1.50 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.10 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.41 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -0.31 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.19 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MX
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About Balance of Trade — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.848 M, consensus 3 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.09 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.52 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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