Mexico’s November 2025 trade balance marks a notable recovery from a string of deficits that have weighed on the peso and growth outlook. The surplus of MXN 0.61 billion contrasts with the October deficit of MXN -2.40 billion and is well above the 12-month average deficit of roughly MXN -0.30 billion. This swing reflects stronger export performance amid resilient US demand and a moderation in import growth. The geographic scope centers on Mexico’s key trading partners, especially the United States, which accounts for nearly 80% of exports. Temporally, this print closes a challenging quarter marked by external shocks and domestic policy recalibrations.

Drivers this month

• Export growth accelerated by 3.50% MoM, led by automotive and electronics sectors.
• Import growth slowed to 0.80% MoM, reflecting weaker domestic consumption and inventory adjustments.
• Energy exports rebounded following seasonal upticks in oil production and refined products.

Policy pulse

The trade surplus arrives amid a stable monetary policy stance by Banco de México, which has maintained the benchmark rate at 11.25% to anchor inflation expectations near the 3% target. Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs, supporting domestic demand without exacerbating import pressures.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN appreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved sentiment on external accounts. Short-term yields on MXN-denominated bonds edged lower by 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.

Mexico’s trade balance is a core macroeconomic indicator that directly influences GDP growth, inflation, and currency stability. The November surplus of MXN 0.61 billion is a positive signal for external accounts, especially after four consecutive months of deficits averaging MXN -1.10 billion. This improvement aligns with a 2.80% YoY increase in exports and a 1.20% YoY rise in imports, according to the Sigmanomics database.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Banco de México’s steady interest rates and cautious communication have helped stabilize inflation expectations, which currently hover around 3.10% YoY. The trade surplus supports the peso, easing imported inflation pressures and allowing the central bank to maintain its current policy stance without aggressive tightening.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal discipline remains intact, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 0.50% of GDP in 2025. Public investment in manufacturing zones and export infrastructure has contributed to the export rebound. However, elevated social spending may sustain import demand, posing a risk to future trade balances.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global supply chain disruptions have eased, benefiting Mexico’s manufacturing exports. However, lingering US-China trade tensions and potential energy price volatility remain downside risks. Mexico’s trade exposure to the US economy makes it vulnerable to any slowdown in American consumer demand.

Historical comparisons highlight the volatility of Mexico’s trade balance in 2025. The peak surplus occurred in April 2025 at MXN 3.44 billion, driven by strong global demand and favorable commodity prices. The recent deficits in September (-1.94 billion) and October (-2.40 billion) reflected supply chain disruptions and weaker domestic demand. November’s rebound suggests these headwinds are easing.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN/USD spot rate strengthened by 0.40%, while 2-year MXN government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved risk sentiment and expectations of stable monetary policy.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s trade balance trajectory depends on several key factors, including US economic growth, commodity prices, and domestic policy. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• US demand remains robust, boosting Mexican exports by 5% YoY.
• Energy prices stabilize, supporting oil-related exports.
• Import growth remains subdued due to fiscal prudence and supply chain normalization.
• Result: Sustained trade surpluses averaging MXN 1.00 billion monthly, strengthening the MXN and supporting growth.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate US growth leads to 2-3% export growth.
• Imports rise moderately with domestic demand recovery.
• Trade balance oscillates near zero, with small surpluses or deficits.
• Result: MXN remains stable, inflation pressures moderate, and monetary policy steady.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• US slowdown or recession reduces export demand by 3-5%.
• Commodity price shocks depress energy exports.
• Import demand rises due to fiscal expansion or supply disruptions.
• Result: Renewed trade deficits exceeding MXN -1.50 billion monthly, pressuring the peso and inflation.

Structural & long-run trends

Mexico’s trade balance has historically been cyclical, influenced by global commodity cycles and US economic health. The recent volatility underscores the need for diversification beyond traditional manufacturing and energy exports. Investments in technology, renewable energy, and value-added industries could improve resilience over the next decade.

Mexico’s November 2025 trade surplus is a welcome development after months of deficits. It signals improving external conditions and provides breathing room for monetary and fiscal policy. However, risks remain from external shocks and domestic demand fluctuations. Policymakers should leverage this momentum to deepen export diversification and enhance supply chain resilience. Financial markets have responded positively, with the MXN strengthening and bond yields easing. Continued monitoring of trade flows will be critical for navigating the evolving macroeconomic landscape.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

Mexico’s trade balance data often influences currency, equity, and bond markets. The peso’s sensitivity to external accounts makes the MXN/USD pair a key barometer. Additionally, Mexican equities tied to export sectors and commodities tend to track trade developments closely. Below are five tradable symbols with historical correlations to Mexico’s trade flows:

• MXNUSD: The Mexican peso vs. US dollar exchange rate reacts directly to trade balance shifts.
• GMEXICOB.MX: Grupo México, a major mining and export company, sensitive to trade and commodity trends.
• WALMEX.MX: Walmart de México, reflecting domestic consumption and import demand.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often moves inversely to emerging market risk sentiment, including Mexico.
• USDMXN: The inverse of MXNUSD, also highly sensitive to trade data.

Extras: Trade Balance vs. MXNUSD Since 2020

Since 2020, Mexico’s trade balance and the MXNUSD exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of trade surpluses, such as mid-2021 and early 2025, coincide with MXN appreciation against the USD. Conversely, trade deficits align with peso depreciation. This relationship underscores the trade balance’s role as a key driver of currency valuation and external stability for Mexico.

FAQs

What is the significance of Mexico’s November 2025 Balance of Trade?

The November 2025 trade surplus signals a recovery in exports and improved external accounts, which supports the peso and moderates inflation.

How does the trade balance affect Mexico’s macroeconomic outlook?

A positive trade balance strengthens GDP growth prospects, reduces inflationary pressures from imports, and supports stable monetary policy.

What are the main risks to Mexico’s trade balance going forward?

Risks include US economic slowdown, commodity price volatility, and domestic demand fluctuations that could widen trade deficits.

Takeaway: Mexico’s November 2025 trade surplus marks a pivotal turnaround, offering a foundation for external stability and policy flexibility amid global uncertainties.

Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team

Updated 11/27/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Mexico Balance of Trade, November 2025 release.
2. Banco de México, Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
3. Mexican Ministry of Finance, Fiscal Data 2025.
4. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trade Data 2025.