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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Consumer Confidence fell to 45.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Consumer Confidence fell to 45.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.2% from August's 46.3% reading. The reading matched the 44.9% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.4%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 45.55%, vs 43.95% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
45.1
Actual
44.9
Consensus
46.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 45.48
Actual: 45.1
Error: +0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Mexico) was reported at 45.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 44.9% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 46.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 44.8%, ranging from 43.5% to 46.1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 45.4%, up from the prior three at 43.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.89%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.03%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 46.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 27).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - MX
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About Consumer Confidence — Mexico
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 45.1 %, consensus 44.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 46.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 45 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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