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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Consumer Confidence fell to 43.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Consumer Confidence fell to 43.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.9% from April's 44.4% reading. The reading matched the 44.8% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 44.25%, vs 44.2% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the lowest in 40 months.
Latest Release
43.5
Actual
44.8
Consensus
44.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 44.8
Actual: 43.5
Error: +1.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Mexico) was reported at 43.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 44.8% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 44.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45.14%, ranging from 43.5% to 46.5% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 43.97%, down from the prior three at 45.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.15%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.93%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Interest Rate Decision (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - MX
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About Consumer Confidence — Mexico
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 43.5 %, consensus 44.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 44.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 44.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.85 | Medium |