Mexico’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2025 registered at 46.10, down from 46.50 in October and below the consensus estimate of 46.90, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This reading remains close to the 12-month average of 46.50, signaling a relatively stable but cautious consumer mood. The index has trended downward from a recent peak of 47.70 in December 2024, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation, monetary tightening, and external shocks.

Drivers this month

• Rising inflationary pressures weighed on purchasing power, contributing -0.30 points to the index.
• Higher interest rates from Banxico’s recent hikes dampened borrowing appetite.
• Labor market improvements provided a modest offset, adding 0.10 points.

Policy pulse

The current CCI level remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued consumer optimism. Banxico’s monetary policy remains restrictive, with the benchmark rate at 11.25%, aimed at curbing inflation that still hovers around 4.80% YoY, above the 3% target. This environment constrains consumer spending growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MXN currency weakened slightly by 0.15% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Short-term yields on Mexican government bonds edged up by 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 60% of Mexico’s GDP. The November reading aligns with mixed signals from core macroeconomic data. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 1.80% YoY from 2.10% in Q2, while inflation remains sticky. Employment data show a 3.90% unemployment rate, near historic lows, supporting income stability.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Banxico’s hawkish stance, with four consecutive rate hikes since mid-2025, has tightened credit conditions. Consumer loans growth slowed to 4.20% YoY in October from 5.10% in August. The real interest rate remains positive, curbing discretionary spending.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.10% of GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting prudent spending and higher tax revenues. However, limited fiscal stimulus constrains direct support to consumer demand. Infrastructure projects continue but have yet to significantly boost household income.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global supply chain disruptions and US-Mexico trade uncertainties persist. Recent geopolitical tensions in the region have increased risk premiums, impacting business confidence and indirectly consumer sentiment.

Comparing the current reading to historical data, the index remains above the lows of 45.90 seen in August 2025 but below the 47.10 average in early 2025. This pattern reflects a consumer base adjusting to a less accommodative economic environment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Mexican 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points post-release, indicating increased risk aversion. The MXN/USD exchange rate weakened modestly, reflecting investor caution amid subdued consumer sentiment.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s consumer confidence faces a complex outlook shaped by inflation dynamics, monetary policy, and external factors. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Inflation eases below 4% by Q2 2026, allowing Banxico to pause rate hikes.
• Fiscal stimulus increases, boosting disposable income and spending.
• Consumer confidence rebounds above 48, supporting stronger retail sales and GDP growth above 2.50% YoY.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation gradually declines but remains near 4.50%, keeping monetary policy tight.
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, with moderate government spending.
• Consumer confidence stabilizes around 46-47, with steady but modest consumption growth.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation proves persistent above 5%, forcing further rate hikes.
• Geopolitical risks escalate, disrupting trade and investment.
• Consumer confidence falls below 45, leading to weaker consumption and sub-1.50% GDP growth.

Policy pulse

Banxico’s next moves will be critical. A pause or cut in rates could revive confidence, while further hikes risk deepening caution. Fiscal policy flexibility remains limited but could become a key lever if inflation subsides.

Mexico’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index reflects a cautious consumer base navigating inflationary pressures and tighter financial conditions. While the decline is modest, it underscores the challenges facing domestic demand. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to avoid a sharper confidence slump. External risks and geopolitical uncertainties add complexity to the outlook. Close monitoring of inflation trends, Banxico’s policy signals, and fiscal developments will be essential for anticipating shifts in consumer sentiment and economic momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence in Mexico is a bellwether for domestic demand and economic health, influencing several key markets. The MXN currency often reflects shifts in sentiment, as do Mexican government bonds sensitive to growth and inflation expectations. Equities tied to consumer sectors also respond to confidence trends. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with Mexico’s consumer confidence movements:

• MXNUSD – The Mexican peso’s USD exchange rate reacts to changes in consumer sentiment and economic outlook.
• MEXBOL – Mexico’s main equity index, sensitive to consumer spending trends.
• WALMEX.MX – Walmart de México, a retail giant directly impacted by consumer confidence.
• USDMXN – The inverse of MXNUSD, also tracks sentiment shifts.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk appetite, indirectly linked to consumer confidence.

FAQs

What is the current level of Mexico’s Consumer Confidence Index?

The latest reading for November 2025 is 46.10, slightly below October’s 46.50 and the 12-month average of 46.50.

How does consumer confidence affect Mexico’s economy?

Consumer confidence influences household spending, which accounts for about 60% of Mexico’s GDP, impacting growth and inflation.

What are the risks to Mexico’s consumer confidence outlook?

Risks include persistent inflation, further monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and limited fiscal stimulus.

Key takeaway: Mexico’s consumer confidence remains subdued but stable, with inflation and monetary policy as pivotal factors shaping near-term economic momentum.