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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Economic Activity YoY fell to 1.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Economic Activity YoY fell to 1.1% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 1.5% from April's 2.6% reading. The reading matched the 1.1% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.53%. Over the past 3 months, Economic Activity YoY averaged 1.85%, vs 0.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1.1
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.43
Actual: 1.1
Error: +0.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Economic Activity YoY (Mexico) was reported at 1.1% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.95%, ranging from -1.1% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.6%, up from the prior three at 1.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.32%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.39%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Economic Activity YoY has averaged 0.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Economic Activity YoY - MX
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About Economic Activity YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Economic Activity YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in economic activity over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of an economy, allowing businesses and investors to make informed decisions. By comparing current economic activity to the same period in the previous year, this indicator helps to identify trends and potential risks, making it a crucial tool for assessing the performance of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |