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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Economic Activity YoY climbed to 1.4% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Economic Activity YoY climbed to 1.4% in March 2026, released May 2026, up 1.8% from February's -0.4% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.37%. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 1.4
Error: -1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Activity YoY (Mexico) was reported at 1.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.44%, ranging from -1.5% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.47%, up from the prior three at 0.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.43%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.81%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Economic Activity YoY has averaged 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Economic Activity YoY - MX
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About Economic Activity YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
Economic Activity YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in economic activity over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of an economy, allowing businesses and investors to make informed decisions. By comparing current economic activity to the same period in the previous year, this indicator helps to identify trends and potential risks, making it a crucial tool for assessing the performance of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.