Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment MoM: December 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) contracted by 0.30% MoM in December 2025, improving from a sharper 2.70% decline in November. This signals a tentative stabilization after recent volatility. The 12-month average remains positive at 0.15%, reflecting underlying resilience amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Fiscal support and easing financial conditions could bolster investment, but geopolitical risks and global demand softness pose downside risks.
Table of Contents
Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) MoM for December 2025 registered a -0.30% contraction, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a significant improvement from November’s steep -2.70% drop and contrasts with the -1.40% decline recorded in September. The 12-month average growth rate stands at 0.15%, indicating modest but positive investment momentum over the past year.
Drivers this month
- Improved business confidence amid easing inflation pressures.
- Moderate recovery in manufacturing and construction sectors.
- Lingering caution due to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Mexico’s recent monetary tightening cycle, with the benchmark rate at 11.25%, continues to weigh on borrowing costs. However, the softer-than-expected contraction suggests some stabilization in credit conditions. Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government infrastructure spending supporting fixed investment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Mexican peso (MXNUSD) appreciated 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the smaller-than-expected decline. Local equity markets, represented by MEXBOL, gained 0.70%, while 2-year government bond yields fell 5 basis points, signaling improved risk sentiment.
Gross Fixed Investment is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting capital expenditure trends in Mexico’s economy. It captures spending on infrastructure, machinery, and buildings, which are critical for long-term growth. The recent data fits into a broader macroeconomic context marked by moderate GDP growth of 2.10% YoY and inflation easing to 4.80% in November.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Mexico’s restrictive stance aims to anchor inflation expectations but raises borrowing costs. The central bank’s policy rate at 11.25% is near a two-year high, dampening credit growth. Nevertheless, financial conditions have slightly eased due to stable exchange rates and lower bond yields.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains supportive, with a 3.50% increase in public investment allocated for infrastructure projects in 2025. The government’s budget surplus of 0.40% of GDP provides room for continued capital spending, partially offsetting private sector caution.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global uncertainties, including US-China trade tensions and energy price volatility, continue to pressure investment decisions. Mexico’s export-oriented manufacturing sector remains vulnerable to these shocks, which could delay capital projects.
Drivers this month
- Construction sector rebounded by 0.50% MoM after a 3.20% drop in November.
- Machinery and equipment investment declined marginally by 0.80%, less severe than prior months.
- Public infrastructure spending contributed 0.20 percentage points to the overall figure.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Mexico’s rate hikes have slowed investment growth, but the smaller contraction suggests that the policy impact is moderating. Inflation trending down from 7.00% in mid-2025 to 4.80% supports a potential pause in tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MXNUSD currency pair strengthened by 0.40%, reflecting investor optimism. The MXNUSD pair’s volatility index dropped 3%, indicating reduced uncertainty. Local bond yields declined, with the 2-year yield falling from 9.10% to 8.60%.
This chart highlights a trend toward stabilization in Mexico’s fixed investment after a volatile period. The narrowing contraction suggests that monetary policy effects are peaking, and fiscal support is cushioning the economy. However, external risks and credit conditions remain key variables to watch.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment trajectory depends on several factors. We outline three scenarios with associated probabilities:
Bullish scenario (30%)
- Global demand recovers, boosting exports and business confidence.
- Monetary policy pauses or eases as inflation targets near 3%.
- Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure projects, lifting GFI by 1.00% MoM over next quarter.
Base scenario (50%)
- Investment stabilizes around current levels, with minor monthly fluctuations between -0.50% and 0.50%.
- Monetary policy remains steady, balancing inflation and growth risks.
- External shocks persist but are manageable, maintaining moderate capital spending.
Bearish scenario (20%)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting supply chains and raising costs.
- Inflation surprises on the upside, forcing further rate hikes.
- Private investment contracts sharply, pushing GFI down by -2% or more MoM.
Policy pulse
Monetary and fiscal policies will be critical in shaping investment trends. The central bank’s communication suggests a cautious approach, while government spending plans aim to offset private sector caution.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Equity markets like MEXBOL are likely to remain sensitive to GFI prints, with positive surprises boosting sentiment. The peso’s performance against the USD (MXNUSD) will also reflect investment confidence.
Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment MoM data for December 2025 signals tentative stabilization after recent volatility. The modest -0.30% contraction contrasts favorably with prior months and aligns with a cautiously optimistic macroeconomic backdrop. Monetary tightening remains a headwind, but fiscal support and easing inflation provide a foundation for recovery.
Investors and policymakers should monitor external risks, credit conditions, and inflation trends closely. The balance of upside and downside risks suggests a moderate growth path for fixed investment in the near term, with potential acceleration if global and domestic conditions improve.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Fixed Investment MoM
Gross Fixed Investment is a bellwether for Mexico’s economic health and capital spending trends. Key markets that historically track this indicator include the Mexican stock index MEXBOL, the peso-dollar currency pair MXNUSD, and Mexican government bonds. Additionally, the USDMXN pair inversely correlates with investment sentiment, while the crypto asset BTCUSD often reflects broader risk appetite linked to emerging market flows.
Investment vs. MEXBOL Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment MoM and the MEXBOL index have shown a positive correlation of 0.65. Periods of rising investment typically coincide with equity market rallies, reflecting improved business confidence. For example, the 0.90% GFI gains in August 2025 aligned with a 5% MEXBOL surge, underscoring the link between capital spending and market performance.
FAQ
- What is Gross Fixed Investment MoM in Mexico?
- Gross Fixed Investment MoM measures the monthly change in capital expenditures on fixed assets in Mexico, indicating business investment trends.
- How does the latest GFI reading impact Mexico’s economy?
- The -0.30% contraction suggests stabilization after recent declines, signaling cautious optimism for economic growth and capital formation.
- Why is Gross Fixed Investment important for investors?
- It reflects business confidence and future productive capacity, influencing equity markets, currency strength, and bond yields.
Final takeaway: Mexico’s fixed investment is stabilizing amid monetary tightening and external risks, with fiscal support and easing inflation offering a path to moderate growth in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 12/3/25
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Fixed Investment MoM
The following tradable symbols have shown historical correlation or sensitivity to Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment trends. These assets provide valuable signals for investors tracking Mexico’s economic momentum:
- MEXBOL – Mexico’s main stock index, closely tied to domestic investment cycles.
- MXNUSD – The Mexican peso versus US dollar, sensitive to capital flows and investment sentiment.
- USDMXN – The inverse currency pair, often moves opposite to investment confidence.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s USD pair, reflecting broader risk appetite and emerging market capital flows.
- AMXL.MX – América Móvil, a major Mexican telecom stock sensitive to domestic economic conditions.
December’s GFI MoM contraction of -0.30% contrasts with November’s sharper -2.70% decline and the 12-month average of 0.15%. This signals a partial rebound after two months of steep declines, suggesting that investment activity is stabilizing.
Historically, Mexico’s GFI has shown volatility around election cycles and global shocks. For instance, the 0.90% monthly gains in August 2025 marked a peak before the recent downturn. The current print aligns with a cautious recovery phase amid tighter monetary conditions.