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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.21% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mexico Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.21% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.41% from April's 0.2% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.12% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.53%, vs 0.39% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
-0.21
Actual
-0.12
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.12
Actual: -0.21
Error: +0.09
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.85 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at -0.21% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.12% by 0.09%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.27%, ranging from -0.21% to 0.66% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.22%, down from the prior three at 0.39%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.23%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.25%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.04%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.21 %, consensus -0.12 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.86 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.85) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.