Mozambique Inflation Rate YoY: February 2026 Print Shows First Uptick Since Mid-2025
Mozambique's year-over-year inflation rate edged up to 3.20% in February 2026, breaking a steady downtrend that began in mid-2025. The latest reading, released March 10, 2026, comes after January's 3.04% and remains well below the 4.79% seen in September 2025. The figure matches analyst estimates and keeps inflation within the central bank's comfort zone.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Food prices: +0.11pp
- Transport: +0.06pp
- Housing/utilities: +0.03pp
- Clothing: -0.01pp
Policy Pulse
February's 3.20% inflation print sits comfortably within the Bank of Mozambique's 3–6% target band. The central bank has maintained a steady policy stance since late 2025, citing subdued price pressures and a stable metical.
Market Lens
Local bond yields held steady after the release. Investors viewed the modest uptick as a pause in disinflation, not a reversal. The metical remained stable against major currencies, reflecting confidence in the central bank's inflation management.
Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- September 2025: 4.79%
- October 2025: 4.93%
- November 2025: 4.83%
- December 2025: 4.38%
- January 2026: 3.23%
- February 2026: 3.20%
Comparative Perspective
February's inflation rate is the lowest since December 2025 and marks a 1.59 percentage point drop from October's peak. The 12-month average now stands at 4.19%, underscoring the sharp disinflation since late last year.
Market Lens
Equity markets showed muted reaction. The inflation data reinforced expectations for policy continuity, with no immediate impact on local stocks or foreign investor sentiment.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (30%): Inflation resumes its downward path, reaching 2.8% by mid-2026 as food and fuel prices stabilize.
- Base (55%): Inflation fluctuates between 3.0% and 3.4% over the next quarter, with no major shocks to supply chains or currency.
- Bearish (15%): Price pressures re-emerge, pushing inflation above 3.6% if external commodity prices spike.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected harvests and continued currency stability. Downside risks stem from global oil price volatility and potential supply disruptions. The central bank's data-driven approach should help anchor expectations.
Market Lens
Currency traders remain on the sidelines. The metical's muted response reflects confidence in the inflation outlook and the central bank's credibility.
Data source: Sigmanomics database, official Mozambique statistics. Methodology: headline CPI, year-over-year comparison, monthly release.
Closing Thoughts
Key Takeaway
Mozambique's inflation rate has stabilized at a multi-month low, with February's 3.20% print confirming a pause in the disinflation trend. The reading remains within the central bank's target, supporting a steady policy stance and market calm.
Market Lens
Fixed income investors see little reason to adjust positions. The inflation data reinforce the view that price risks are contained for now, with no immediate threat to bond valuations or currency stability.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data from Mozambique can influence a range of asset classes, particularly those sensitive to emerging market macro trends. Below are verified tradable symbols from Sigmanomics, each reflecting a different market segment. Their performance often correlates with inflation surprises and policy shifts.
- AAPL (Stock): Global tech stocks like Apple can see indirect effects from emerging market inflation via supply chain costs and risk sentiment.
- EURUSD (Forex): The euro-dollar pair often reacts to inflation data in frontier markets through shifts in global risk appetite.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge can attract flows when emerging market inflation surprises to the upside.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (MZ) | BTCUSD Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5.5% | Rising |
| 2021 | 5.1% | Volatile |
| 2022 | 6.2% | Rising |
| 2023 | 7.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 6.7% | Falling |
| 2025 | 4.9% | Rising |
| 2026 | 3.2% | Stable |
Since 2020, periods of higher inflation in Mozambique have coincided with increased volatility and upward moves in BTCUSD, while recent disinflation has aligned with more stable crypto price action.
FAQ
- What is the latest Mozambique Inflation Rate YoY?
- The most recent figure is 3.20% for February 2026, up from 3.04% in January.
- How does the February 2026 inflation rate compare to recent months?
- February's 3.20% marks the first increase since October 2025, but remains well below the 12-month average of 4.19%.
- What factors contributed to Mozambique's inflation rate in February 2026?
- Food and transport costs were the main contributors, with minor offsets from clothing and housing.
Disinflation has paused, but inflation remains contained and within target.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Mozambique Inflation Rate YoY, accessed March 10, 2026.
- Bank of Mozambique, official inflation target statements, 2025–2026.
- Mozambique National Statistics Institute, CPI releases, 2025–2026.
February's 3.20% inflation rate reversed January's 3.04% and sits well below the 12-month average of 4.19%. The last time inflation rose month-over-month was in October 2025, when it reached 4.93%. Since then, the trend has been downward, with February marking the first uptick in seven months.
The pace of disinflation has slowed, but the overall trajectory remains favorable compared to the second half of 2025. The gap between the current reading and the September 2025 high of 4.79% highlights the progress made in stabilizing prices.