November 2025 Inflation Rate YoY in MZ: A Data-Driven Analysis
The latest inflation rate year-over-year (YoY) for MZ, released on November 12, 2025, registered at 4.83%, slightly below the market estimate of 5.00% and down from October’s 4.93%. This report leverages data from the Sigmanomics database to contextualize this figure within recent trends and macroeconomic conditions. We assess the implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, external risks, and financial markets, providing a forward-looking perspective on MZ’s inflation trajectory.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 inflation rate YoY in MZ stands at 4.83%, marking a modest decline from October’s 4.93% and continuing a recent trend of inflation hovering near 5%. This figure remains above the 12-month average of approximately 4.50% since late 2024, indicating persistent price pressures. The geographic scope focuses on MZ’s domestic economy, while the temporal frame covers the latest monthly release and its historical context over the past six months.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized, contributing a neutral effect after prior volatility.
- Food inflation eased slightly, reducing headline inflation by 0.10 percentage points.
- Core services inflation remained sticky, sustaining upward pressure.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate remains above the central bank’s target band of 3.00%–4.00%, signaling ongoing inflationary risks. The slight dip from October suggests some easing but not enough to alter the hawkish stance of monetary authorities.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MZN currency weakened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market concern over persistent inflation pressures.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for the inflation reading. MZ’s GDP growth for Q3 2025 was reported at 2.80% YoY, slightly below the 3.00% forecast, indicating moderate economic expansion. Unemployment remains steady at 6.20%, while wage growth accelerated to 5.10% YoY, feeding into cost-push inflation dynamics.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank maintained its policy rate at 6.50% in November, citing inflation risks and external vulnerabilities. Credit growth slowed to 7.40% YoY, reflecting tighter financial conditions. The real effective exchange rate depreciated by 1.20% over the past month, adding imported inflation risk.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3, supported by improved tax collection and restrained spending. However, government debt remains elevated at 58% of GDP, limiting fiscal space to counter inflationary shocks.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices: stable after a 2.50% drop in October.
- Food prices: inflation eased from 5.20% to 4.80% YoY.
- Core inflation: steady at 4.90%, driven by services and housing costs.
Policy pulse
The inflation rate remains above the central bank’s 4% upper target, reinforcing expectations for continued monetary tightening. The slight decline may delay but not prevent further rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: MZN/USD depreciated 0.30%, while 2-year yields rose 5 basis points, signaling investor caution amid sticky inflation.
This chart highlights inflation’s persistence above target despite recent easing. The upward trend since mid-2025 suggests underlying price pressures remain entrenched, warranting close monitoring of monetary policy responses.
Looking ahead, inflation in MZ faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline scenario projects inflation stabilizing near 4.70% over the next six months, supported by moderate economic growth and contained energy prices.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global commodity prices fall sharply, easing imported inflation.
- Monetary tightening successfully anchors inflation expectations.
- Inflation dips below 4% by Q2 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains near current levels, fluctuating between 4.50% and 5.00%.
- Monetary policy tightens gradually to contain inflation.
- Moderate GDP growth and stable fiscal policy.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- External shocks, such as geopolitical tensions, push energy prices higher.
- Wage-price spirals intensify, pushing inflation above 5.50%.
- Monetary policy lags, risking inflation entrenchment.
MZ’s inflation rate at 4.83% YoY reflects a complex interplay of domestic and external factors. While the slight decline from October offers some relief, inflation remains above the central bank’s target, necessitating vigilant monetary policy. Fiscal discipline and external risk management will be critical to sustaining macroeconomic stability. Financial markets have priced in continued tightening, with currency and bond yields reacting swiftly to the data. Structural trends, including wage growth and supply chain dynamics, suggest inflation will remain a key policy focus in the medium term.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
The inflation rate in MZ significantly influences several tradable markets, especially those sensitive to interest rates, currency fluctuations, and commodity prices. Investors and traders should watch these instruments closely as they historically track inflation dynamics and central bank responses.
- MTN – A major telecom stock sensitive to consumer spending and interest rate changes in MZ.
- USDZAR – The USD/ZAR currency pair often moves in tandem with inflation and monetary policy shifts in MZ’s region.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge makes it relevant amid inflation volatility.
- SAB – Consumer staples stock impacted by inflation-driven input costs.
- EURUSD – Reflects broader global monetary policy shifts influenced by inflation trends.
Inflation Rate vs. MTN Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, MTN’s stock price has shown a moderate inverse correlation with MZ’s inflation rate. Periods of rising inflation, especially above 5%, have coincided with downward pressure on MTN shares due to higher borrowing costs and reduced consumer spending power. Conversely, inflation dips below 4% have supported MTN’s valuation recovery. This relationship underscores the sensitivity of consumer-facing stocks to inflationary environments in MZ.
FAQ
- What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for MZ?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for MZ is 4.83% as of November 2025, slightly below October’s 4.93%.
- How does the inflation rate affect monetary policy in MZ?
- Inflation above the central bank’s 4% target prompts tighter monetary policy, including potential interest rate hikes to contain price pressures.
- What are the main risks to inflation in MZ going forward?
- Key risks include external shocks such as energy price spikes, wage inflation, and delayed policy responses that could push inflation higher.
Takeaway: MZ’s inflation remains elevated but shows tentative signs of easing. Vigilant policy and external risk management will shape the inflation path in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November inflation rate of 4.83% compares to October’s 4.93% and a 12-month average of 4.50%, showing a mild deceleration but sustained inflationary pressure. The trend since May 2025 shows a gradual rise from 3.99% to a peak near 4.93% in October, followed by a slight pullback.
Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database reveal that inflation has oscillated between 3.96% and 4.93% over the past six months, reflecting volatility in energy and food prices, alongside persistent core inflation.