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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NigeriaNigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.89% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.89% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.18% from December's 4.07% reading. The reading matched the 3.9% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.49%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
3.89
Actual
3.9
Consensus
4.07
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.26 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.78
Actual: 3.89
Error: -0.11
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nigeria) was reported at 3.89% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.01%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.07%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.98%, up from the prior three at 3.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.26%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - NG
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Nigeria
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.89 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 4.07 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 3.98 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.