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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NigeriaNigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 4.43% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 4.43% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 0.54% from March's 3.89% reading. The reading matched the 4.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.67%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
4.43
Actual
4.3
Consensus
3.89
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.36 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.97
Actual: 4.43
Error: -0.46
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Nigeria) was reported at 4.43% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.3% by 0.13%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.89%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.98%, ranging from 2.83% to 4.43% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.9%, down from the prior three at 3.98%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.36%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - NG
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Nigeria
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.43 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.43 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.83 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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