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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NetherlandsNetherlands Balance of Trade fell to 10.91B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Netherlands Balance of Trade fell to 10.91B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.74B from June's 11.65B reading. The reading matched the 10.9B consensus. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 8.34B, vs 25.39B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
10.91
Actual
10.9
Consensus
11.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.69 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 9.44
Actual: 10.91
Error: -1.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Netherlands) was reported at 10.91 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.90 billion by 0.01 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.65 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.76 billion, ranging from 6.66 billion to 12.47 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 9.32 billion, up from the prior three at 8.91 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.81 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.55 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 10.06 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.69 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Oct 15) and Consumer Confidence (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - NL
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About Balance of Trade — Netherlands
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 10.91 B, consensus 10.9 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 10.4 B. Before that (May 2026): 6.66 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NL Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | NL | Household Consumption YoY | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.55 | Low |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | NL | Manufacturing Production MoM | 3.3 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 0.55 | Low |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | NL | Balance of Trade | 10.91 | 8.1 | 5.83 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | NL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0 | 0.00 | Low | |
| 04:30 | NL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low | |