November 2025’s Consumer Confidence index for the Netherlands was reported at -21.00, unchanged from October’s -21.00 and slightly above the consensus estimate of -22.00, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure reflects a plateau after a notable recovery from the mid-year troughs of -37.00 recorded in April and May 2025. The 12-month average stands at -29.20, indicating that current sentiment remains below the longer-term norm but has improved significantly since early 2025.

Geographic & Temporal Scope

The data covers the Netherlands’ nationwide consumer sentiment for November 2025, released on December 19, 2025. Month-over-month (MoM) comparisons focus on October 2025, while year-over-year (YoY) comparisons reference November 2024, when confidence was markedly lower at -34. This temporal framing highlights a gradual but uneven recovery in consumer mood over the past year.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

Consumer confidence trends correlate closely with inflation, employment, and wage growth. Inflation in the Netherlands has moderated from a peak of 7.40% in mid-2025 to around 3.80% in November, easing pressure on household budgets. Unemployment remains low at 3.90%, supporting income stability. Wage growth has accelerated modestly to 3.20% year-over-year, helping offset cost-of-living increases.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a cautious stance, holding key interest rates steady at 3.75% in November after a series of hikes earlier in the year. Financial conditions remain tight, with mortgage rates elevated near 4.50%, dampening housing market enthusiasm. Credit growth has slowed to 2.10% annually, reflecting cautious lending and borrowing behavior.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The Dutch government continues a prudent fiscal approach, targeting a budget deficit of 1.80% of GDP in 2025, down from 2.50% in 2024. Recent stimulus measures have focused on energy subsidies and social transfers to shield vulnerable households from inflation shocks. However, fiscal tightening in other areas constrains broader demand support.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have injected uncertainty into the Dutch economy. Energy price volatility, although reduced from earlier in 2025, remains a risk factor. Trade uncertainties with key partners, including the UK and EU neighbors, continue to influence business and consumer outlooks.

Drivers this month

• Energy price stabilization contributed 0.15 points to sentiment.
• Wage growth and employment stability added 0.10 points.
• Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns subtracted -0.20 points.

Policy pulse

The ECB’s pause in rate hikes aligns with the current confidence level, which remains below pre-pandemic norms but above recent lows. The index suggests consumers are sensitive to monetary policy signals but have not yet fully regained confidence to increase spending.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/NLG currency pair dipped 0.10% following the release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Dutch 2-year government bond yields edged down 3 basis points, signaling a mild risk-off stance. Equity markets showed muted response, with the AEX index closing flat.

Forward Outlook

Looking ahead, consumer confidence in the Netherlands faces a mixed outlook. Three scenarios emerge:

• Bullish (30% probability): Inflation continues to ease below 3%, wage growth accelerates above 4%, and geopolitical tensions ease, pushing confidence above -15 by Q2 2026.
• Base (50% probability): Inflation stabilizes near 3.50%, wage growth remains moderate, and geopolitical risks persist, keeping confidence around -20 to -22 through mid-2026.
• Bearish (20% probability): Inflation surprises on the upside, ECB resumes tightening, and external shocks intensify, dragging confidence below -25 by mid-2026.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term, Dutch consumer confidence has trended downward since the 2019 peak near +10, reflecting demographic shifts, rising housing costs, and global economic uncertainties. The current plateau may represent a new normal amid tighter monetary policy and evolving labor market dynamics. Structural reforms in housing affordability and social safety nets could be key to restoring more robust consumer sentiment.

November 2025’s Consumer Confidence reading of -21.00 signals a cautious but stable consumer mood in the Netherlands. While the index remains below historical averages, it reflects resilience amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Policymakers and market participants should monitor inflation trajectories and wage dynamics closely, as these will be critical to sustaining consumer spending and economic growth in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence is a bellwether for economic activity and market sentiment in the Netherlands. Key markets that historically track this indicator include Dutch equities, the EUR/NLG currency pair, and fixed income instruments. Movements in these markets often reflect shifts in consumer spending expectations and risk appetite.

• AEX – The primary Dutch stock index, sensitive to domestic consumer demand fluctuations.
• EURNLG – The euro to Dutch guilder pair, reflecting currency market sentiment tied to economic outlook.
• EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair, influenced by ECB policy and broader European consumer trends.
• ING – Major Dutch bank, whose lending activity correlates with consumer confidence.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on asset, reacts to shifts in consumer and investor sentiment.

FAQs

What does the November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading indicate?

The -21.00 reading indicates cautious but stable consumer sentiment, unchanged from October and improved from early 2025 lows.

How does consumer confidence impact the Dutch economy?

Consumer confidence influences spending, which drives economic growth, employment, and corporate earnings in the Netherlands.

What are the risks to consumer confidence going forward?

Risks include inflation persistence, renewed monetary tightening, and geopolitical shocks that could dampen consumer optimism.

In summary, November 2025’s Consumer Confidence in the Netherlands reflects a fragile equilibrium. While the worst of the sentiment downturn appears behind, ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks temper optimism. Close monitoring of inflation, wages, and external developments will be essential to gauge the trajectory of consumer-driven growth in 2026.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.