The November 2025 manufacturing production figure for the Netherlands came in at a 0.10% month-over-month increase, contrasting sharply with the consensus estimate of a 1.50% decline. This follows a strong 2.00% rise in October, indicating a marked deceleration but not a contraction. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly change has hovered around -0.10%, reflecting a generally subdued industrial environment.

Drivers this month

• Automotive and machinery sectors showed slight expansion, contributing approximately 0.05 percentage points.
• Electronics manufacturing remained flat, neither adding nor subtracting significantly.
• Energy-intensive industries faced headwinds from higher input costs, limiting growth.

Policy pulse

The current reading sits below the Dutch central bank’s target growth range but above contraction territory. The modest gain suggests manufacturing is holding steady despite tighter monetary conditions aimed at curbing inflation.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious sentiment. The Dutch 2-year government bond yield edged up 3 basis points, signaling mild risk repricing. The EUR/NL currency pair showed minimal volatility.

Manufacturing production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting industrial health and economic momentum. The 0.10% MoM increase in November 2025 contrasts with the prior month’s 2.00% surge and the average of -0.10% over the last year. This suggests a plateauing phase after a brief rebound.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Dutch central bank has maintained a cautious tightening stance, with key interest rates rising by 50 basis points since mid-2025. Higher borrowing costs have dampened capital expenditure in manufacturing, contributing to the slowdown. Inflation remains above target at 3.20%, pressuring real incomes and demand.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government spending on infrastructure and green technology supporting industrial sectors. However, budget constraints limit stimulus scale, and tax adjustments have slightly increased operational costs for manufacturers.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Supply chain disruptions persist due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia. Energy price volatility, exacerbated by sanctions and trade frictions, has increased input costs, particularly for energy-intensive manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output trends show volatility linked to global demand fluctuations and domestic policy shifts. The recent plateau may reflect firms’ cautious stance amid inflationary pressures and tighter credit. The sector’s resilience is supported by steady demand in automotive and machinery, offsetting weakness in energy-heavy industries.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Dutch equities, represented by ASML, saw a 0.30% gain post-release, reflecting optimism about industrial resilience. The EUR/NL currency pair remained stable, while bond yields edged higher, signaling mixed investor sentiment.

Looking ahead, manufacturing production in the Netherlands faces a complex interplay of factors. The base case scenario projects modest growth of 0.20% MoM over the next quarter, supported by steady domestic demand and fiscal support. This scenario holds a 50% probability.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global supply chains ease, reducing input costs.
• Monetary policy shifts to a more accommodative stance.
• Energy prices stabilize, boosting energy-intensive sectors.
• Manufacturing production accelerates to 0.50% MoM growth.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting exports.
• Inflation spikes further, eroding purchasing power.
• Credit conditions tighten, curbing investment.
• Manufacturing output contracts by 0.50% MoM or more.

Policy pulse

Monetary authorities remain vigilant. Any signs of inflation persistence could prompt further rate hikes, pressuring manufacturing. Conversely, a slowdown in inflation may allow easing, supporting growth.

The November 2025 manufacturing production data for the Netherlands signals a cautious stabilization after a volatile year. While growth slowed sharply from October’s peak, the sector avoided contraction despite challenging monetary and geopolitical conditions. The balance of risks remains tilted slightly to the downside, but fiscal support and easing supply constraints could provide upside.

Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, energy prices, and global trade developments closely. The manufacturing sector’s trajectory will be a bellwether for broader economic health in the coming months.