NEVI Manufacturing PMI for the Netherlands: December 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
The latest NEVI Manufacturing PMI for the Netherlands, released on December 1, 2025, holds steady at 51.80, matching November’s reading but slightly below the consensus estimate of 52.00. This report from the Sigmanomics database offers a timely snapshot of Dutch manufacturing activity amid evolving global and domestic economic conditions. This analysis compares the current PMI with past trends, explores key macroeconomic drivers, and assesses implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, and market sentiment. We also outline scenarios for the near-term outlook, balancing upside potential against downside risks.
Table of Contents
The NEVI Manufacturing PMI for the Netherlands remains in expansion territory at 51.80 in December 2025, signaling moderate growth in the sector. This level is consistent with November’s figure but below October’s peak of 53.70. The PMI has rebounded from sub-50 readings in mid-2025, reflecting resilience amid global uncertainties.
Drivers this month
- Steady new orders and output growth supported the PMI at 51.80.
- Input price pressures eased slightly, reducing cost burdens.
- Export demand remained stable despite geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.
Policy pulse
The PMI reading sits above the neutral 50 mark but below the 12-month average of 52.10, suggesting moderate expansion. This aligns with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious stance amid persistent inflation near 3.50%, slightly above the 2% target.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD slipped 0.15% in the first hour post-release, reflecting mild disappointment versus estimates. Dutch 2-year government bond yields edged down 3 basis points, signaling a slight easing in short-term risk premiums.
The NEVI Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of industrial health, closely tied to GDP growth and employment trends in the Netherlands. The current 51.80 reading compares favorably to the contractionary levels below 50 seen in April (49.60), May (49.20), and June (49.00) 2025. This recovery reflects improving supply chain conditions and stabilizing demand.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB has maintained a cautious monetary policy stance, with key interest rates steady at 3.50%. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with Dutch credit spreads stable. The PMI’s moderate expansion supports the ECB’s wait-and-see approach, balancing inflation control against growth risks.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy in the Netherlands remains supportive, with the government maintaining a slight budget surplus of 0.20% of GDP in Q3 2025. Investment in green technologies and infrastructure continues to underpin manufacturing demand, offsetting some external headwinds.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, have introduced volatility in export markets. However, Dutch manufacturers have diversified supply chains and markets, mitigating direct impacts. Energy price volatility has eased, reducing cost pressures compared to mid-2025.
This chart reveals a manufacturing sector that has stabilized after mid-year softness. The PMI’s plateau near 52 suggests moderate but sustainable growth, with risks tilted slightly to the downside given global uncertainties. The sector’s resilience bodes well for Dutch GDP growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD declined 0.15%, reflecting tempered optimism. Dutch 2-year yields fell 3 basis points, while the EUR/NZD pair showed mild strengthening, indicating cautious risk sentiment.
Looking ahead, the NEVI Manufacturing PMI suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Dutch manufacturing. The sector faces a mix of supportive domestic demand and external headwinds from geopolitical risks and global growth moderation.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global supply chains normalize further, boosting export orders.
- Energy prices remain stable or decline, easing cost pressures.
- ECB signals a pause or cut in rates by mid-2026, supporting investment.
- PMI rises above 53, signaling stronger expansion.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Manufacturing growth remains moderate, with PMI around 51.50–52.
- Fiscal support continues but limited by EU-wide constraints.
- Geopolitical tensions persist but do not escalate significantly.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- New export restrictions or energy shocks hit the sector.
- ECB tightens monetary policy further to combat inflation.
- PMI slips below 50, signaling contraction risks.
The NEVI Manufacturing PMI for the Netherlands at 51.80 signals steady but unspectacular growth in December 2025. The sector has rebounded from mid-year softness but faces a complex macro backdrop. Monetary policy remains cautiously restrictive, fiscal policy supportive, and external risks elevated but contained. Market reactions indicate tempered optimism, with investors weighing inflation risks against growth prospects.
Overall, the PMI suggests Dutch manufacturing is navigating a challenging environment with resilience. Policymakers and investors should monitor supply chain developments, energy prices, and geopolitical tensions closely. The balance of risks points to moderate growth with potential volatility ahead.
For investors, tracking related financial instruments such as ASML, EURUSD, BTCUSD, SHELL, and EURNZD can provide early signals of shifts in sentiment and economic momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to NEVI Manufacturing PMI
The NEVI Manufacturing PMI is a bellwether for Dutch industrial activity and broader economic health. Key markets that historically track this indicator include:
- ASML – A leading Dutch semiconductor equipment maker, sensitive to manufacturing demand cycles.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar currency pair often reacts to Eurozone economic data, including Dutch PMI releases.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk sentiment shifts following macroeconomic data.
- SHELL – Energy sector giant, impacted by manufacturing energy demand and price volatility.
- EURNZD – Euro-New Zealand dollar pair, sensitive to commodity-linked risk sentiment and Eurozone data.
Insight: NEVI Manufacturing PMI vs. ASML Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, the NEVI Manufacturing PMI and ASML stock price have shown a strong positive correlation. Periods of PMI expansion above 50 typically coincide with upward trends in ASML shares, reflecting robust industrial demand. Conversely, PMI contractions have often preceded ASML price corrections. This relationship underscores ASML’s role as a proxy for Dutch manufacturing health and global tech investment cycles.
FAQ
- What is the NEVI Manufacturing PMI for the Netherlands?
- The NEVI Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator measuring manufacturing sector activity in the Netherlands, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.
- How does the NEVI Manufacturing PMI affect economic outlook?
- The PMI provides early signals of industrial growth or contraction, influencing GDP forecasts, monetary policy decisions, and market sentiment.
- What are the main risks to the Dutch manufacturing sector?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and tighter monetary policy impacting demand.
Key takeaway: The NEVI Manufacturing PMI’s steady 51.80 reading signals moderate growth amid mixed macro conditions, with risks balanced between cautious optimism and external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The NEVI Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 holds steady at 51.80, unchanged from November but down from October’s 53.70. The 12-month average stands at 52.10, indicating a slight deceleration in momentum. This stability follows a rebound from contractionary readings below 50 in the spring and early summer of 2025.
New orders and output components remain the main drivers, while supplier delivery times have normalized, easing inflationary pressures. The employment sub-index edged up to 50.50, signaling tentative hiring intentions.