Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NorwayNorway Balance of Trade climbed to 105K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Norway Balance of Trade climbed to 105K in September 2026, released October 2026, up 4.4K from August's 100.6K reading. The print exceeded the 88.1K consensus by 16.9K. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 92.35K, vs 67.65K in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 35 months.
Latest Release
105
Actual
88.1
Consensus
100.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±18.41 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 96.25
Actual: 105
Error: -8.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NOK | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Norway) was reported at 105 thousand in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 88 thousand by 17 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 101 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 69 thousand, ranging from 41 thousand to 105 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 97 thousand, up from the prior three at 70 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 21 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 17 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 62 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/NOK, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 18 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - NO
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Norway
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 105 K, consensus 88.1 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 100.4 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 84.3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - NO Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | NO | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.75 | Low |
| 06:00 | NO | Industrial Confidence | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1 | 2.20 | Low |