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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NorwayNorway Balance of Trade fell to 62.6K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Norway Balance of Trade fell to 62.6K in May 2026, released June 2026, down 21.0K from April's 83.6K reading. The reading missed the 91.5K consensus by 28.9K. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 90.85K, vs 54.53K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 60th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
62.6
Actual
91.5
Consensus
83.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±18.24 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 81.1
Actual: 62.6
Error: +18.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Norway) was reported at 63 thousand in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 92 thousand by 29 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 84 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 55 thousand, ranging from 37 thousand to 84 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 64 thousand, up from the prior three at 53 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 14 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 14 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 56 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 18 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - NO
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About Balance of Trade — Norway
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 62.6 K, consensus 91.5 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 84.2 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 97.5 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.