The Core Inflation Rate YoY for Norway reached 3.40% in November 2025, surpassing the 3.00% estimate and previous month’s 3.00%. This marks a notable rebound from the 2.80% low in June 2025 and aligns with the upper range of the past 12 months’ average of approximately 3.05%. The rise reflects ongoing inflationary pressures despite monetary tightening efforts by Norges Bank.

Drivers this month

• Shelter costs contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp), reflecting rising rents and housing maintenance expenses.
• Energy prices added 0.15 pp amid global oil price volatility.
• Core goods inflation remained steady, contributing 0.10 pp.
• Used car prices exerted a mild downward pressure of -0.07 pp.

Policy pulse

The 3.40% reading sits above Norges Bank’s 2% inflation target, reinforcing the central bank’s hawkish stance. The persistent overshoot suggests that further rate hikes or prolonged restrictive policy may be necessary to anchor inflation expectations.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: NOK/USD strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 8 basis points, reflecting increased expectations of monetary tightening.

Core inflation is a critical gauge of underlying price pressures, excluding volatile food and energy components. Norway’s 3.40% YoY core inflation contrasts with headline inflation, which remains more volatile due to external shocks. The Sigmanomics database confirms that this figure is the highest since April 2025’s 3.40%, indicating a resurgence after a mid-year lull.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Norges Bank has incrementally raised its policy rate from 1.75% in early 2025 to 2.50% by October, aiming to temper inflation. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit growth slowing and mortgage rates rising. However, the core inflation persistence suggests a lag in monetary transmission or structural inflation drivers.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Norway’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with increased public spending on infrastructure and social programs. The government budget surplus narrowed to 1.20% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 2.00% a year earlier, partly due to higher energy subsidies cushioning households against global price shocks.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global energy market volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and OPEC+ production decisions, has fed into domestic inflation. Additionally, supply chain disruptions persist, particularly in imported intermediate goods, sustaining price pressures.

Historical comparisons reveal that the last time core inflation reached this level was in April 2025 (3.40%), and prior to that, in early 2024 when inflation briefly peaked near 3.50%. The current trajectory suggests a potential return to the elevated inflation regime seen during the post-pandemic recovery phase.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The NOK currency appreciated against major peers, with NOK/USD gaining 0.30%. Short-term government bond yields rose, reflecting market anticipation of further rate hikes. Equity markets showed mild volatility, with sectors sensitive to interest rates underperforming.

Looking ahead, the core inflation trajectory in Norway faces several possible scenarios. The baseline forecast, with a 60% probability, assumes inflation will moderate gradually to around 2.50% by mid-2026 as monetary policy effects deepen and fiscal support tapers.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global energy prices decline sharply due to easing geopolitical tensions.
• Supply chain normalization accelerates, reducing cost-push inflation.
• Norges Bank’s rate hikes successfully anchor inflation expectations.
• Core inflation falls below 2.50% by Q3 2026.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Inflation remains elevated but gradually declines to 2.50% by mid-2026.
• Monetary policy tightens moderately with cautious communication.
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, avoiding additional stimulus.
• Core inflation volatility persists but does not accelerate.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Energy prices surge due to renewed geopolitical conflict.
• Wage pressures intensify amid tight labor markets.
• Monetary policy lags behind inflation dynamics, leading to persistent overshoot.
• Core inflation rises above 4% by early 2026, forcing aggressive rate hikes.

Policy pulse

Norges Bank faces a delicate balancing act. The November print strengthens the case for continued vigilance, but risks of over-tightening remain. Forward guidance will be critical to managing market expectations and avoiding economic shocks.

Norway’s core inflation rate rising to 3.40% in November 2025 underscores persistent inflationary pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. While monetary policy has tightened, external shocks and structural factors continue to fuel price increases. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether inflation can be reined in without derailing growth.

Financial markets have already priced in a more hawkish Norges Bank, with the Norwegian krone strengthening and bond yields rising. Fiscal policy adjustments and geopolitical developments will also play key roles in shaping inflation dynamics.

Investors and policymakers should monitor shelter costs, wage growth, and energy prices closely. The balance of risks remains tilted slightly to the upside, but a well-calibrated policy response could steer Norway back toward price stability.

Key Markets Likely to React to Core Inflation Rate YoY

The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a vital indicator for markets sensitive to interest rates, currency strength, and economic growth prospects. The following tradable symbols historically track or react strongly to Norway’s inflation data:

• NOKUSD – Norway’s currency pair, highly sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy shifts.
• OBX.OL – Norway’s benchmark stock index, reflecting economic sentiment and interest rate expectations.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment barometer.
• NEL.OL – Norwegian energy sector stock, correlated with energy price-driven inflation.
• EURNOK – Euro to Norwegian krone pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows and inflation differentials.

Extras: Indicator vs. NOK/USD Since 2020

Insight: Since 2020, Norway’s Core Inflation Rate YoY and NOK/USD have exhibited a positive correlation. Periods of rising core inflation typically coincide with NOK appreciation, driven by expectations of tighter monetary policy. For example, during the 2024 inflation surge to 3.50%, NOK/USD strengthened by approximately 5%. Conversely, inflation dips have aligned with NOK weakening. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data and Norges Bank’s policy stance.

Year	Core Inflation Rate YoY (%)	NOK/USD Change (%)
2020	1.80	-3.20
2021	2.40	2.10
2022	3.10	4.50
2023	2.90	1.80
2024	3.50	5.00
2025 (YTD)	3.10	2.70

FAQs

What is the Core Inflation Rate YoY for Norway?

The Core Inflation Rate YoY measures the annual change in consumer prices excluding volatile food and energy components, providing insight into underlying inflation trends.

How does the recent Core Inflation Rate YoY reading impact monetary policy?

The 3.40% reading above the 2% target suggests Norges Bank may continue tightening monetary policy to control inflation.

Why is Core Inflation important for investors?

Core Inflation influences interest rates, currency strength, and market sentiment, affecting asset prices and investment decisions.