Norway CPI November 2025: Inflation Moderates but Remains Elevated
The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Norway rose 3.30% year-over-year, down from 3.60% in October but above consensus estimates of 3.10%. Core inflation pressures persist amid resilient domestic demand and external cost shocks. Monetary policy remains vigilant as financial markets price in a cautious tightening path. Fiscal policy and geopolitical risks add complexity to the inflation outlook. Structural trends suggest inflation will moderate gradually but remain above the central bank’s 2% target through 2026.
Table of Contents
The latest CPI release for Norway, published on November 10, 2025, shows inflation easing slightly but remaining elevated at 3.30% year-over-year (YoY). This figure is a moderation from October’s 3.60% but still above the 12-month average of approximately 2.80% since early 2025. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing price pressures driven by energy costs, shelter, and food prices. The geographic scope covers the entire Norwegian mainland economy, with temporal coverage focusing on monthly and annual inflation trends.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.22 percentage points (pp), reflecting rising rents and housing maintenance.
- Energy prices added 0.15 pp, despite recent global oil price volatility.
- Food inflation remained sticky at 0.10 pp, influenced by supply chain disruptions.
- Used cars and transportation costs exerted a mild downward drag of -0.05 pp.
Policy pulse
At 3.30%, inflation remains above Norges Bank’s 2% target, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. The central bank’s recent rate hikes have yet to fully temper demand-driven inflation. Market expectations suggest a 60% probability of one more 25 basis point hike by Q1 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Norwegian krone (NOK) strengthened 0.30% against the euro in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 8 basis points, reflecting hawkish sentiment. Breakeven inflation rates edged up slightly, signaling sustained inflation risk premia.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the CPI reading show a mixed but resilient economic backdrop. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 1.10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), supported by strong consumer spending and export demand. Unemployment remains low at 3.20%, near historic lows, supporting wage growth and domestic inflationary pressures.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Norges Bank’s policy rate currently stands at 3.75%, up from 3.50% last quarter. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with credit spreads widening slightly and mortgage rates rising. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency, with inflation readings like November’s CPI critical to future decisions.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The Norwegian government maintains a prudent fiscal stance, with the 2025 budget projecting a modest surplus of 0.50% of GDP. However, increased spending on social programs and infrastructure may add inflationary pressures in the medium term. Oil revenues remain a key fiscal buffer amid global energy market volatility.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global energy price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions continue to influence Norwegian inflation. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Arctic region pose risks to energy exports and trade routes, potentially exacerbating inflation volatility.
Drivers this month
- Shelter inflation accelerated to 0.22 pp contribution, the highest since July 2025.
- Energy price volatility caused a 0.15 pp increase, down from 0.25 pp in September.
- Food prices remained steady contributors at 0.10 pp, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.
Policy pulse
The CPI remains above Norges Bank’s target, reinforcing expectations for continued monetary tightening. The central bank’s inflation forecasts project a gradual decline toward 2.50% by mid-2026, contingent on stable energy prices and subdued wage growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Norwegian 2-year yields jumped 8 basis points, while NOK/USD gained 0.30%, reflecting market pricing of persistent inflation risks. Breakeven inflation rates for 5 years rose 5 basis points, indicating sustained inflation expectations.
This chart highlights a trend of moderating but still elevated inflation in Norway. The November CPI print suggests inflation is reversing a two-month decline but remains above the central bank’s comfort zone. Market pricing reflects a cautious stance, balancing upside inflation risks with tightening financial conditions.
Looking ahead, inflation in Norway is expected to moderate gradually but remain above the 2% target through 2026. Key uncertainties include global energy prices, wage growth, and geopolitical developments. The Sigmanomics database models three scenarios:
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20% probability): Energy prices decline sharply, wage growth slows, and inflation falls below 2.50% by Q3 2026.
- Base (60% probability): Inflation moderates steadily to 2.70% by year-end 2026, supported by moderate monetary tightening and stable fiscal policy.
- Bearish (20% probability): Persistent supply shocks and wage pressures keep inflation above 3%, forcing more aggressive rate hikes and tighter financial conditions.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term inflation dynamics in Norway are influenced by demographic shifts, productivity growth, and energy transition policies. The transition to green energy may introduce cost pressures but also efficiency gains. Structural wage growth remains moderate, limiting runaway inflation risks.
The November 2025 CPI release confirms that inflation in Norway is moderating but remains above target. Monetary policy will likely stay on a cautious tightening path, balancing inflation control with growth support. Fiscal prudence and external risks add complexity to the outlook. Market participants should monitor energy prices, wage trends, and geopolitical developments closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
The Norwegian CPI influences several key markets, including the Norwegian krone (NOK), domestic government bonds, and energy-related equities. The following symbols historically track inflation dynamics closely:
- NOKUSD – The Norwegian krone’s exchange rate reflects inflation and monetary policy expectations.
- AKER.OL – A leading Norwegian energy stock sensitive to inflation-driven commodity price changes.
- ELK.OL – Electricity producer impacted by energy price inflation and regulatory shifts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations as a store of value.
- EURNOK – Euro to Norwegian krone exchange rate sensitive to relative inflation and policy.
Indicator vs. NOKUSD Since 2020
A comparative analysis of Norway’s CPI and NOKUSD exchange rate since 2020 reveals a strong inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation coincide with NOK appreciation due to expected monetary tightening. The November 2025 CPI print aligns with this pattern, as NOKUSD strengthened post-release, reflecting hawkish market sentiment.
FAQs
- What is the current CPI rate for Norway?
- The November 2025 CPI for Norway is 3.30% year-over-year, down from 3.60% in October.
- How does the CPI affect Norges Bank’s monetary policy?
- Inflation above the 2% target supports further rate hikes or maintaining tight policy to anchor expectations.
- What are the main inflation drivers in Norway?
- Shelter, energy prices, and food costs are the primary contributors to recent inflation trends.
Key takeaway: Norway’s inflation is easing but remains elevated, requiring cautious monetary policy and close monitoring of external risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
The Norwegian CPI release is a critical data point for currency traders, bond investors, and energy sector participants. The Norwegian krone (NOKUSD) typically strengthens on higher inflation prints due to expected rate hikes. Energy stocks like AKER.OL and ELK.OL respond to inflation-driven commodity price changes. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) often reacts to inflation expectations as a hedge, while the EUR/NOK pair (EURNOK) reflects relative monetary policy shifts.
Indicator vs. NOKUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Norway’s CPI and NOKUSD exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Rising inflation periods coincide with NOK appreciation, driven by Norges Bank’s tightening stance. The November 2025 CPI print at 3.30% aligns with this trend, as NOKUSD strengthened 0.30% immediately after release, confirming market expectations of further rate hikes.
FAQs
- What is the latest CPI figure for Norway?
- The November 2025 CPI is 3.30% year-over-year, slightly below October’s 3.60% but above estimates.
- How does inflation impact Norwegian monetary policy?
- Persistent inflation above 2% supports continued interest rate increases by Norges Bank.
- Which sectors drive inflation in Norway?
- Shelter, energy, and food prices are the main inflation drivers currently.
Final takeaway: Norway’s inflation remains elevated but shows signs of easing, warranting cautious monetary policy and vigilance on external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November CPI print of 3.30% YoY marks a decline from October’s 3.60% but remains elevated relative to the 12-month average of 2.80%. Month-over-month (MoM), the index rose 0.40%, consistent with seasonal patterns but signaling persistent price pressures.
Comparing historical data from the Sigmanomics database, the current inflation rate is higher than the 2024 average of 1.90% and the 2023 peak of 2.50%, underscoring the recent inflationary surge. The moderation from October suggests some easing but not a definitive trend reversal.