Norway Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Norway’s November inflation rate MoM rose 0.30%, below expectations but above October’s 0.40%. This marks a moderation from recent volatility, with a 12-month average near 0.30%. Core drivers include shelter and energy costs, while used car prices eased. Monetary policy remains cautious amid persistent inflation pressures. External risks from energy markets and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty. Financial markets showed muted reaction, reflecting balanced sentiment. Structural trends suggest inflation may stabilize but remain above target in the medium term.
Table of Contents
Norway’s inflation rate MoM for November 2025 was released on November 10, showing a 0.30% increase. This figure came in below the market estimate of 0.20% but slightly lower than October’s 0.40% rise. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the latest monthly inflation dynamics in Norway (NO) and provides a critical lens on the country’s price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
- Energy prices added 0.10 pp, reflecting ongoing volatility in global oil markets.
- Used car prices declined, subtracting -0.05 pp from the overall inflation rate.
Policy pulse
The 0.30% MoM inflation rate remains above the Norges Bank’s 2% annual target when annualized, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. The central bank is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing between curbing inflation and supporting growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Norwegian krone (NOK) weakened marginally by 0.10% against the euro in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 3 basis points, reflecting modest inflation concerns.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside inflation provides a fuller picture of Norway’s economic health. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.50%, supporting wage growth that feeds into inflation. GDP growth slowed slightly to 1.20% annualized in Q3 2025, consistent with a cooling economy. Consumer spending growth moderated to 0.40% MoM, aligning with the inflation trend.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Norges Bank’s policy rate currently stands at 3.75%, unchanged since September. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with credit spreads widening by 10 basis points over the past month. Inflation expectations remain anchored but elevated, with 5-year breakeven inflation at 2.30%.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Norway’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with the government running a modest deficit of 1.20% of GDP in 2025. Increased spending on infrastructure and social programs supports domestic demand but may add to inflationary pressures in the near term.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global energy price volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continues to impact Norway’s inflation. As a major oil exporter, Norway faces both upside and downside risks from fluctuating crude prices, which influence domestic energy costs and fiscal revenues.
Drivers this month
- Shelter inflation remains the largest contributor, reflecting rising housing costs.
- Energy prices, influenced by global oil market shifts, continue to push inflation upward.
- Used car prices eased, providing a small offset to overall inflation.
This chart highlights a stabilization of inflation after early 2025 volatility. The trend suggests inflation is neither accelerating sharply nor declining, indicating a plateau around the central bank’s comfort zone but above target. This dynamic will shape monetary policy decisions in coming months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the print, Norwegian 2-year yields rose by 3 basis points, reflecting slightly increased inflation risk. The NOK weakened 0.10% versus the EUR, signaling cautious investor sentiment amid mixed inflation signals.
Looking ahead, inflation in Norway faces a range of scenarios shaped by domestic and external factors. The base case assumes inflation will hover around 0.30% MoM, consistent with recent trends, as wage growth and energy prices stabilize.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation moderates faster than expected, dropping below 0.20% MoM by Q1 2026 due to easing energy prices and subdued wage growth. This scenario supports a pause or cut in Norges Bank rates, boosting growth prospects.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Inflation remains steady near 0.30% MoM, with shelter and energy costs balancing out. Norges Bank maintains current rates, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent but manageable inflation.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation accelerates above 0.50% MoM driven by renewed energy price shocks and stronger wage pressures. This forces Norges Bank to hike rates further, risking slower growth and financial market volatility.
Structural & long-run trends
Norway’s inflation dynamics reflect structural shifts including housing supply constraints and energy market integration. Long-run inflation is expected to settle near the 2% target but with periodic volatility due to external shocks and fiscal policy influences.
November’s inflation data confirms a moderate but persistent inflation environment in Norway. While the 0.30% MoM increase is below expectations, it aligns with a broader trend of steady price pressures. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting economic growth amid external uncertainties. Financial markets remain cautious but stable, reflecting a wait-and-see approach to upcoming data and policy signals.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Norway’s inflation rate influences several key markets, including domestic equities, the Norwegian krone, and energy-linked assets. The following symbols historically track inflation dynamics closely:
- ORK – Norwegian oil & gas sector, sensitive to inflation via energy prices.
- EURNOK – Currency pair reflecting NOK strength against the euro, impacted by inflation and monetary policy.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often reacting to inflation surprises.
- NOR – Broad Norwegian equity index, sensitive to inflation-driven economic shifts.
- USDNOK – USD to NOK exchange rate, reflecting inflation and interest rate differentials.
Inflation vs. EURNOK Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Norway’s inflation rate MoM and the EURNOK exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with NOK appreciation, as higher inflation prompts monetary tightening. Conversely, inflation dips have aligned with NOK weakening. This relationship underscores the importance of inflation data for currency traders and policymakers alike.
FAQs
- What is the current inflation rate MoM for Norway?
- The November 2025 inflation rate MoM for Norway is 0.30%, slightly below October’s 0.40%.
- How does this inflation reading affect Norges Bank policy?
- The persistent inflation above target suggests Norges Bank will maintain a cautious stance, possibly keeping rates steady in the near term.
- What are the main risks to Norway’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include energy price volatility, wage growth surprises, and geopolitical tensions impacting global markets.
Final takeaway: Norway’s inflation remains steady but elevated, requiring vigilant policy and market attention amid ongoing external uncertainties.
Author
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.30% compares to 0.40% in October and a 12-month average of approximately 0.30%. This suggests a slight deceleration from last month’s spike but remains consistent with the year-long trend of moderate inflation.
Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows notable volatility earlier this year, with a peak of 1.40% in March and a trough of -0.70% in April. The current reading signals a return to more stable inflation dynamics after these fluctuations.