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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY climbed to 6.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY climbed to 6.4% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 3.6% from March's 2.8% reading. The print exceeded the -1.0% consensus by 7.4%. Manufacturing Sales YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Manufacturing Sales YoY is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
6.4
Actual
-1
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.1 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -1
Actual: 6.4
Error: -7.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Sales YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 6.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1% by 7.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.83%, down from the prior three at 3.43%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Sales YoY has averaged 0.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Manufacturing Sales YoY - NZ
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About Manufacturing Sales YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the total sales of manufactured goods over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall performance and growth of the manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can indicate the strength of consumer demand, business investment, and overall economic health. A positive YoY growth in manufacturing sales suggests a robust economy, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 6.4 %, consensus -1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): -0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.65 | -2.64 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |