Peru’s Current Account Surges to 2.46 Billion PEN: A Data-Driven Macro Analysis
The latest Current Account data for Peru (PE), released on November 21, 2025, reveals a substantial surplus of 2.46 billion PEN. This figure significantly exceeds both the market estimate of 0.70 billion PEN and the previous reading of 0.72 billion PEN. Drawing on the Sigmanomics database, this report contextualizes the current account dynamics within Peru’s evolving macroeconomic landscape, comparing recent trends with historical data and assessing implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, external risks, and financial markets.
Table of Contents
Peru’s current account surplus of 2.46 billion PEN in November 2025 marks a sharp improvement from the prior 0.72 billion PEN reading in August 2025. This jump reflects stronger export performance and improved terms of trade amid a backdrop of global commodity price stabilization. The surplus is the highest in the past 18 months, surpassing the 12-month average of approximately 1.50 billion PEN. This signals a robust external position for Peru, supporting the national currency and reducing external vulnerability.
Drivers this month
- Commodity exports, especially copper and gold, surged, contributing an estimated 1.20 billion PEN to the surplus.
- Services deficit narrowed by 0.30 billion PEN due to increased tourism inflows.
- Remittances remained stable, supporting current transfers.
Policy pulse
The current account surplus aligns with the central bank’s inflation-targeting framework, providing room for a measured monetary stance. The improved external balance reduces pressure on the PEN and supports financial stability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PEN appreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the 2-year sovereign bond yield compressed by 12 basis points, reflecting reduced risk premia.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the current account reveal a mixed but generally positive picture. Peru’s GDP growth remains steady at 3.10% YoY, supported by mining and agriculture sectors. Inflation is contained at 3.40% YoY, close to the central bank’s 2-4% target range. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 1.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting improved tax collection and controlled spending.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has maintained its policy rate at 5.25%, balancing inflation risks and growth momentum. Financial conditions have eased slightly, with credit growth at 6.50% YoY and stable banking sector liquidity. The stronger current account surplus supports the PEN and reduces imported inflation risks.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a primary surplus by 2026. The improved external balance reduces the need for external borrowing, easing sovereign debt servicing costs. However, social spending pressures remain a downside risk.
This chart highlights a strong upward trend in Peru’s current account surplus, reversing a two-month decline. The data suggests improved external resilience and a positive terms-of-trade shock, which should bolster macroeconomic stability in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PEN/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.40%, while the Lima Stock Exchange benchmark index (red text: SPBLPGPT) gained 1.20% in the hours following the release, reflecting investor confidence in Peru’s external position.
Looking ahead, Peru’s current account trajectory will hinge on commodity prices, global demand, and domestic policy responses. The baseline scenario (60% probability) assumes continued commodity price stability and moderate export growth, sustaining a surplus near 2 billion PEN over the next two quarters.
The bullish scenario (25% probability) envisions a stronger global recovery, pushing the surplus above 3 billion PEN, driven by higher copper prices and increased foreign direct investment inflows. Conversely, the bearish scenario (15% probability) involves a global slowdown or geopolitical shocks disrupting trade, compressing the surplus below 1 billion PEN and pressuring the PEN.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Risks include potential trade disruptions from regional political instability and volatility in China’s demand for minerals. These could dampen export revenues and widen the current account deficit.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Peru’s reliance on commodity exports remains a structural vulnerability. Diversification efforts and infrastructure investments are critical to stabilizing the current account over the long term.
Peru’s November 2025 current account surplus of 2.46 billion PEN signals a robust external position, exceeding expectations and historical averages. This improvement supports monetary policy flexibility, strengthens the PEN, and reduces external financing risks. However, the country remains exposed to commodity price swings and geopolitical uncertainties. Policymakers should leverage this window to advance diversification and fiscal consolidation to sustain macroeconomic stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
Peru’s current account data typically influences currency, equity, and commodity markets. The following five symbols historically track or react to Peru’s external balance shifts:
- SPBLPGPT – Lima Stock Exchange benchmark, sensitive to export sector performance.
- USDPEN – USD/PEN forex pair, directly impacted by current account flows.
- BRLPEN – Brazilian Real to Peruvian Sol, reflecting regional currency dynamics.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin/USD, often a risk sentiment proxy affecting emerging market currencies.
- GOLD – Gold prices, a key export commodity influencing Peru’s trade balance.
Extras: Current Account vs. USDPEN Exchange Rate Since 2020
| Year | Current Account (B PEN) | USDPEN Year-End Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.45 | 3.60 |
| 2021 | 1.10 | 3.50 |
| 2022 | 1.35 | 3.40 |
| 2023 | 1.20 | 3.45 |
| 2024 | 1.50 | 3.42 |
| 2025 (Nov) | 2.46 | 3.30 |
Insight: The strengthening current account surplus correlates with PEN appreciation against the USD, highlighting the external balance’s role in currency valuation.
FAQ
- What does Peru’s current account surplus indicate?
- The surplus signals a positive external balance, reflecting strong exports and reduced external vulnerabilities in Peru’s economy.
- How does the current account affect Peru’s monetary policy?
- A larger surplus supports currency strength and reduces imported inflation, allowing the central bank to maintain a balanced policy stance.
- What are the risks to Peru’s current account outlook?
- Risks include commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and global demand shocks that could reduce export revenues.
Takeaway: Peru’s current account surplus surge to 2.46 billion PEN marks a pivotal improvement, bolstering macro stability but underscoring the need for structural reforms to mitigate external risks.
Updated 11/21/25
The current account surplus of 2.46 billion PEN in November 2025 outpaces the August 2025 figure of 0.72 billion PEN and the 12-month average of 1.50 billion PEN. This marks a significant reversal from the May 2025 trough of 0.90 billion PEN. The surge is driven by a 35% increase in commodity export revenues and a 15% reduction in the services deficit.
Comparing historical data, the current surplus is the largest since February 2025’s 2.26 billion PEN and nearly triple the 0.68 billion PEN recorded in May 2024. This volatility reflects Peru’s commodity dependence and external demand fluctuations.