Peru’s GDP growth rate of 3.40% YoY in November 2025 marks a moderate acceleration compared to the 2.90% recorded in October. This figure is slightly below the 3.94% peak seen earlier in November but remains above the 12-month average of approximately 3.30%. The economy shows resilience amid global uncertainties, supported by steady domestic demand and commodity exports.

Drivers this month

• Mining exports contributed 0.90 percentage points (pp), buoyed by higher metal prices.
• Domestic consumption added 1.20 pp, reflecting improved labor market conditions.
• Investment growth slowed, subtracting -0.30 pp due to cautious business sentiment.

Policy pulse

The 3.40% growth rate sits comfortably above the central bank’s inflation-target-consistent growth range of 2.50–3.00%. This suggests room for a neutral monetary stance, though vigilance remains warranted given inflationary pressures from imported goods.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Peruvian sol (PEN) strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the benchmark 2-year sovereign yield edged down 5 basis points, signaling investor confidence in sustained growth.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Peru’s growth include stable inflation, manageable fiscal deficits, and improving labor market metrics. Inflation remains near 3.50% YoY, close to the central bank’s 2% target band, while unemployment has declined to 6.10% from 6.50% six months ago.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has maintained its policy rate at 5.50% since September 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth to the private sector has accelerated modestly at 6.80% YoY, reflecting improved lending conditions.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal deficits narrowed to 2.10% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 2.80% a year earlier, thanks to higher tax revenues and controlled public spending. The government’s infrastructure push remains a key growth driver, though execution delays temper near-term impact.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity price volatility, especially in copper and gold, poses upside and downside risks. Geopolitical tensions in Latin America have so far had limited direct impact, but trade disruptions remain a watchpoint.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PEN/USD currency pair appreciated 0.30% post-release, reflecting renewed investor optimism. Sovereign bond yields declined slightly, indicating reduced risk premiums. Equity markets responded positively, with the SPBLX index gaining 0.50% in the session.

Looking ahead, Peru’s growth trajectory depends on several factors, including commodity prices, domestic demand, and policy responses. We outline three scenarios for 2026:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Commodity prices stabilize above current levels, boosting export revenues.
• Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure investment, lifting growth above 4.50% YoY.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit expansion.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Growth holds steady around 3.50% YoY, supported by balanced domestic demand and exports.
• Inflation remains near target, allowing a neutral monetary stance.
• Fiscal discipline continues, with moderate public investment.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity price shocks or geopolitical tensions disrupt trade flows.
• Inflation spikes force monetary tightening, slowing credit growth.
• Fiscal slippage raises debt concerns, dampening investor sentiment.

Policy pulse

The BCRP’s current stance appears calibrated to navigate these scenarios, with flexibility to adjust rates if inflation deviates significantly from target.

Peru’s 3.40% GDP growth rate YoY in November 2025 reflects a stable and moderately expanding economy. While risks from external shocks and fiscal pressures remain, the overall macroeconomic environment is supportive. Continued monitoring of commodity markets, inflation trends, and fiscal execution will be critical to sustaining growth momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Financial markets sensitive to Peru’s GDP growth include local equities, sovereign bonds, and the Peruvian sol currency. The following tradable symbols historically track or influence Peru’s growth dynamics:

• SPBLX – Peru-focused equity index, sensitive to domestic economic conditions.
• USDPEN – USD/PEN currency pair, reflecting capital flows and monetary policy expectations.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk appetite and alternative investment flows impacting emerging markets.
• MSFT – Global tech stock, indicative of global growth sentiment affecting commodity demand.
• EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair, influencing global liquidity conditions relevant to Peru’s external financing.

FAQs

What is the current GDP Growth Rate YoY for Peru?

The latest GDP growth rate for Peru is 3.40% YoY as of November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database.

How does Peru’s GDP growth affect its currency?

Stronger GDP growth tends to strengthen the Peruvian sol (PEN) by attracting investment and improving trade balances.

What are the main risks to Peru’s economic growth?

Key risks include commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and fiscal policy slippages.

Takeaway: Peru’s economy is on a steady growth path, supported by resilient domestic demand and commodity exports, but must navigate external uncertainties carefully.