Peru’s latest GDP YoY growth reading of 3.94% for November 2025, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, signals a notable acceleration from the prior month’s 3.18% and a recovery from the mid-year low of 1.40% in June. This growth rate remains above the 12-month average of approximately 3.30%, indicating a stable expansion phase in the Peruvian economy.

Drivers this month

• Domestic consumption contributed 1.20 percentage points (pp), supported by wage growth and remittances.
• Mining output rebounded, adding 0.80 pp amid higher global metal prices.
• Government infrastructure spending added 0.50 pp, reflecting fiscal stimulus.
• Export growth slowed slightly, subtracting -0.30 pp due to external demand softness.

Policy pulse

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has maintained a cautious monetary stance, keeping the benchmark rate at 5.50% to temper inflationary pressures. The current GDP growth aligns with the BCRP’s inflation target range of 2-3%, suggesting a balanced growth-inflation trade-off.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PEN currency appreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year sovereign bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor confidence.

Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Peru’s GDP growth reveal a mixed but generally positive picture. Inflation remains contained at 3.10% YoY, slightly above the central bank’s midpoint but stable compared to previous months. Unemployment has edged down to 6.20%, the lowest since early 2024, supporting consumer spending.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The BCRP’s steady policy rate of 5.50% has tightened financial conditions moderately. Credit growth slowed to 6.50% YoY from 7.20% last quarter, reflecting cautious lending amid global uncertainties. The banking sector remains well-capitalized, with non-performing loans stable at 2.10%.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation continues with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.20% of GDP in 2025. Public investment rose 4.30% YoY, focusing on transport and energy projects. However, tax revenue growth slowed to 3.50%, pressured by weaker commodity export receipts.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Commodity price volatility, especially in copper and gold, poses risks to Peru’s export earnings. Geopolitical tensions in Latin America and trade uncertainties with China, a key trading partner, add to external vulnerabilities. The government’s diversification efforts aim to mitigate these risks.

Drivers this month

• Mining sector growth rebounded to 5.10% YoY after a 2.30% dip in September.
• Private consumption rose 3.80%, supported by wage gains and remittance inflows.
• Government investment increased 4.30%, bolstering infrastructure development.

Policy pulse

The BCRP’s policy stance remains accommodative yet vigilant. Inflation expectations are anchored near 3%, allowing room for moderate growth without overheating. The GDP print supports the current monetary policy trajectory.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PEN strengthened 0.40% versus the USD, while the 2-year sovereign bond yield declined by 5 basis points, reflecting positive market sentiment. Equity indices related to mining and infrastructure sectors rose modestly.

Looking ahead, Peru’s GDP growth faces a range of scenarios shaped by domestic policies and external conditions. The baseline forecast projects 3.50–4.00% YoY growth over the next 12 months, supported by stable consumption and ongoing infrastructure projects.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or rise, boosting export revenues.
• Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure investment beyond current plans.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit growth.
• GDP growth exceeds 4.50% YoY by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Commodity prices remain volatile but stable on average.
• Fiscal consolidation continues as planned, with moderate public spending.
• Monetary policy maintains current stance, balancing inflation and growth.
• GDP growth holds steady around 3.50–4.00% YoY.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity prices fall sharply due to global demand shocks.
• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade and investment flows.
• Inflation spikes force monetary tightening, dampening credit.
• GDP growth slows below 3.00% YoY, risking recessionary pressures.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Peru’s long-term growth is supported by structural reforms in mining, energy, and digital infrastructure. Demographic trends favor a growing labor force, while diversification efforts aim to reduce dependence on commodities. These factors underpin a positive growth outlook beyond cyclical fluctuations.

Peru’s November 2025 GDP YoY growth of 3.94% reflects a resilient economy navigating global uncertainties. The rebound from mid-year lows and steady fiscal and monetary policies provide a solid foundation. However, external shocks and inflation risks require vigilance. Investors and policymakers should monitor commodity markets and geopolitical developments closely. Overall, Peru’s growth trajectory remains positive, supported by structural reforms and prudent macroeconomic management.

Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY

Peru’s GDP growth data typically influences several key markets, including local equities, currency, bonds, and commodity-linked assets. These markets respond to shifts in economic momentum, inflation expectations, and policy outlooks.

• IBB – Tracks biotech sector but sensitive to risk sentiment shifts driven by macro data.
• USDPEN – Directly reflects Peru’s currency movements reacting to GDP and policy changes.
• EURUSD – Global risk sentiment proxy, indirectly impacted by Peru’s economic outlook.
• VALE – Major mining stock correlated with Peru’s commodity export performance.
• BTCUSD – Cryptocurrency market often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation trends.

Insight: Peru GDP YoY vs. USDPEN Since 2020

Since 2020, Peru’s GDP YoY growth and the USDPEN exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of GDP acceleration coincide with PEN appreciation, reflecting investor confidence and capital inflows. For example, the 2025 rebound in GDP to 3.94% coincided with a 0.40% PEN appreciation post-release. This relationship underscores the importance of GDP data in forex market dynamics and monetary policy signaling.

FAQ

What does Peru’s latest GDP YoY growth indicate?

Peru’s GDP growth of 3.94% YoY in November 2025 indicates a robust economic recovery supported by domestic demand and fiscal stimulus.

How does this GDP reading affect Peru’s monetary policy?

The growth aligns with the central bank’s inflation target, supporting a steady monetary policy stance without immediate rate changes.

What are the main risks to Peru’s GDP outlook?

Key risks include commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation spikes that could prompt tighter monetary policy.

Final takeaway: Peru’s GDP growth rebound to 3.94% YoY signals economic resilience amid global uncertainties, supported by balanced policies and structural reforms.

Author: Jane Doe, Senior Economist, Sigmanomics

Updated 11/16/25

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Peru GDP YoY releases, November 2025.
2. Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
3. Peruvian Ministry of Economy and Finance, Fiscal Data 2025.
4. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, 2025.
5. Bloomberg Commodity Price Index, 2025.