Peru GDP YoY: February Growth Moderates, Remains Above Trend
Peru’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 3.54% year-over-year in February 2026, down from January’s 3.83% but still above the 12-month average. The latest data, released March 15, reflects a resilient economic environment despite sectoral divergences.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Mining output: +0.22pp
- Services: +0.19pp
- Manufacturing: +0.07pp
- Agriculture: -0.05pp
Policy pulse
February’s 3.54% GDP YoY growth remains above the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú’s medium-term target range of 2.5%–3.0%[1]. The central bank has maintained a neutral stance, citing balanced risks to growth and inflation.
Market lens
Markets showed little immediate reaction to the February GDP print. The reading, while softer than January’s, reinforced confidence in Peru’s post-pandemic recovery trajectory. Local equities and the sol traded within recent ranges, reflecting investor comfort with the current growth profile.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 3.54%
- January 2026: 3.83%
- December 2025: 3.62%
- November 2025: 3.94%
- October 2025: 3.18%
- September 2025: 3.41%
Sectoral performance
Mining and services continued to drive headline growth, offsetting weaker agricultural output. Manufacturing contributed modestly, while construction activity remained subdued compared to late 2025 levels.
Comparative perspective
February’s figure stands 0.36 percentage points below November’s recent high, but 0.13 points above the 12-month average of 3.41%. The economy has now posted five consecutive months of growth above 3%.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: Sustained mining and services growth, with GDP YoY above 3.7% (probability: 25–35%).
- Base: Growth moderates to 3.2–3.5% as sectoral gains normalize (probability: 50–60%).
- Bearish: External shocks or commodity reversals pull GDP YoY below 3% (probability: 10–20%).
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected mining output and services resilience. Downside risks stem from commodity price volatility, weather disruptions, and global demand shifts. Policy remains data-dependent, with the central bank monitoring inflation and growth trade-offs.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and Banco Central de Reserva del Perú releases. GDP YoY is calculated as the percentage change in nominal GDP compared to the same month the prior year, seasonally adjusted where applicable.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors remain constructive on Peru’s growth outlook. The February GDP print reinforced the view that the economy is navigating sectoral headwinds with relative ease. While the pace has cooled from recent highs, the expansion remains broad-based and above trend, supporting stable asset valuations.Policy pulse
The central bank’s neutral stance reflects confidence in the current growth trajectory. With inflation contained and GDP growth above target, policymakers are likely to maintain a steady approach barring significant external shocks.
Key Markets Reacting to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Peru’s GDP YoY data influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies. The latest reading prompted a muted response, as growth remains above trend but within market expectations. Below are key tradable symbols with exposure to Peru’s economic cycle.
- AAPL (US equities): Indirect exposure via global supply chains and commodity demand.
- EURUSD (Forex): Sensitive to emerging market flows and risk sentiment shifts tied to Latin American growth.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Correlated with risk appetite and capital flows in emerging markets.
| Year | GDP YoY (%) | EURUSD (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -11.0 | 1.14 |
| 2021 | 13.3 | 1.18 |
| 2022 | 2.7 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | 2.0 | 1.08 |
| 2024 | 2.5 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | 3.4 | 1.07 |
Since 2020, periods of stronger Peruvian GDP growth have coincided with firmer EURUSD levels, reflecting global risk sentiment and capital flows into emerging markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Peru’s February 2026 GDP YoY figure indicate?
- It shows the economy grew 3.54% year-over-year, moderating from January but remaining above the 12-month trend, with mining and services leading gains.
- How does the latest GDP YoY reading compare to recent months?
- February’s 3.54% is lower than January’s 3.83% and November’s 3.94%, but above the 12-month average of 3.41%.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- Gross Domestic Product YoY
Peru’s GDP growth remains resilient, with February’s reading confirming a broad-based recovery above trend.
Updated 3/15/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, official monetary policy statements, accessed March 2026.
- Sigmanomics database, Peru GDP YoY time series, accessed March 2026.
February’s 3.54% GDP YoY print moderated from January’s 3.83%, but remains above the 12-month average of 3.41%. The trend since September 2025 shows a steady recovery, with only a brief dip to 1.53% in January 2026 before rebounding strongly.
Compared to the previous six months, February’s reading is the third-highest, trailing only November’s 3.94% and January’s 3.83%. The data signal a resilient expansion, with sectoral rotation cushioning headline volatility.