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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 100B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves fell to 100B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 4.8B from August's 104.8B reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 8.8B. Over the past 3 months, Foreign Exchange Reserves averaged 103.3B, vs 104.25B in the prior 3-month window. Foreign Exchange Reserves is now the lowest in 23 months.
Latest Release
100
Actual
100
Consensus
104.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.42 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 100
Actual: 100
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Foreign Exchange Reserves (Philippines) was reported at 100.00 billion in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 100.00 billion exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 104.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 107.13, ranging from 100.00 to 112.70 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 102.73, down from the prior three at 107.17. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.41) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.22). In October readings over the past 3 years, Foreign Exchange Reserves has averaged 106.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.43.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Foreign Exchange Reserves - PH
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About Foreign Exchange Reserves — Philippines
DEFINITION
Foreign Exchange Reserves refer to the amount of foreign currency held by a country's central bank. These reserves are used to maintain stability in the country's currency and to fulfill international payment obligations. They serve as a measure of a country's economic strength and ability to withstand external shocks. Foreign Exchange Reserves are an important financial indicator for investors and policymakers, providing insight into a country's monetary policy and its ability to manage its currency.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 100 M, consensus 100 M. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 100 M. Before that (Aug 2026): 104.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | PH | Balance of Trade | -5.15 | -4.29 | -4.3 | -4.72 | Low |
| 01:00 | PH | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | PH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 50.3 | 50.60 | Low | |