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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Industrial Production YoY fell to 9.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Philippines Industrial Production YoY fell to 9.6% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 4.3% from June's 13.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 14.0% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Industrial Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
9.6
Actual
14
Consensus
13.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 10.78
Actual: 10.8
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Philippines) was reported at 9.6% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14% by 4.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 13.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.3%, up from the prior three at 5.1%. In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 4.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - PH
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About Industrial Production YoY — Philippines
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 10.8 %, consensus 11 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 9.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 13.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PH Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | PH | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |