Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Philippines Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 3.1% from April's 2.6% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.55%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 2.0%, vs 0.63% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
0.2
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Philippines) was reported at -0.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.41%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Inflation Rate MoM - PH
Loading chart data...
About Inflation Rate MoM — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.