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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Interest Rate Decision climbed to 5.5% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Philippines Interest Rate Decision climbed to 5.5% in October 2026, up 0.5% from September's 5.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. Interest Rate Decision has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
5.5
Actual
5.25
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.25
Actual: 5.5
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Philippines) was reported at 5.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.25% by 0.25%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.71%, ranging from 4.25% to 5.5% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.08%, up from the prior three at 4.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 5.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 5) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - PH
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About Interest Rate Decision — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 5.5 %, consensus 5.25 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PH Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | PH | Balance of Trade | -5.15 | -4.29 | -4.3 | -4.72 | Low |
| 01:00 | PH | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | PH | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 50.3 | 50.60 | Low | |