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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Philippines Interest Rate Decision climbed to 4.5% in April 2026, up 0.25% from March's 4.25% reading. The print came in hotter than the 4.25% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.31%. The reading is in the 21st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.5
Actual
4.25
Consensus
4.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 4.25
Actual: 4.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.92 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Philippines) was reported at 4.5% in April 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.25% by 0.25%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.25%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.67%, ranging from 4.25% to 5.25% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.33%, down from the prior three at 5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - PH
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About Interest Rate Decision — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.5 %, consensus 4.25 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4.25 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.92) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.