The latest unemployment rate for the Philippines (PH) was released on November 6, 2025, showing a rate of 3.80%, slightly below the market estimate of 4.10% and down from October’s 3.90%. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the national labor market and reflects conditions as of October 2025. The figure is notable for its stability following a sharp spike to 5.30% in September, which was influenced by seasonal and external factors.

Drivers this month

• Improved service sector hiring, especially in BPO and retail.
• Recovery in manufacturing output supporting factory employment.
• Seasonal agricultural employment stabilizing rural joblessness.

Policy pulse

The unemployment rate remains below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) informal threshold of concern, supporting the current accommodative monetary stance. Inflation remains moderate, allowing BSP to maintain policy rates steady at 4.25%.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PHP currency strengthened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour after the release, while the PSEi index rose 0.50%, reflecting investor confidence in labor market resilience.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the unemployment reading. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 6.10% YoY, supported by domestic consumption and export recovery. Inflation averaged 3.70% YoY in October, within BSP’s 2-4% target range. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.20% of GDP in Q3, reflecting improved tax collection and controlled spending.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The BSP’s policy rate has remained unchanged since July 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Credit growth accelerated to 9.50% YoY, aiding business expansion and employment. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with stable bond yields and manageable banking sector liquidity.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains expansionary but prudent. The government increased infrastructure spending by 8% YoY, boosting construction jobs. Social protection programs targeting vulnerable workers have been extended, cushioning unemployment risks.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and regional tensions in the South China Sea, pose downside risks. However, remittance inflows remain robust, supporting household incomes and consumption.

Drivers this month

• Service sector employment growth (0.20 pp contribution)
• Manufacturing sector steady (0.10 pp)
• Seasonal agricultural jobs stable (neutral impact)

Policy pulse

The unemployment rate remains comfortably below the BSP’s informal alert level of 5%, supporting the current neutral monetary policy stance. Inflation expectations remain anchored, reducing pressure for rate hikes.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PHP strengthened 0.30% versus the USD, while the PSEi index gained 0.50%, reflecting positive sentiment on labor market stability. Bond yields remained steady, indicating balanced risk appetite.

Looking ahead, the Philippines’ unemployment rate is expected to remain stable or improve slightly, barring major external shocks. The labor market benefits from ongoing infrastructure projects, digital economy expansion, and remittance inflows. However, risks from geopolitical tensions and global inflation volatility persist.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Unemployment falls below 3.50% by Q1 2026 due to robust job creation.
• GDP growth accelerates above 6.50%, driven by exports and investment.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit expansion.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Unemployment holds near 3.80%-4.00% through mid-2026.
• GDP growth moderates to 5.50%-6.00% amid global uncertainties.
• Fiscal policy remains supportive but cautious.

Bearish scenario (10% probability)

• Unemployment rises above 4.50% due to external shocks or domestic disruptions.
• GDP growth slows below 5%, with inflationary pressures forcing monetary tightening.
• Financial market volatility increases, dampening investment.

The November 2025 unemployment rate release confirms a resilient Philippine labor market. Despite a temporary spike in September, the rate’s return to 3.80% signals steady job creation and economic recovery. Policymakers face a balancing act amid external risks but have room to maintain supportive measures. Structural reforms and digitalization will be key to sustaining long-run employment gains.

Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and inflation trends closely. The labor market’s health remains a critical barometer for consumption and growth prospects in the Philippines.

Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is a vital economic indicator that influences multiple asset classes. Labor market strength typically boosts consumer spending, corporate earnings, and currency value. Below are five tradable symbols with historical sensitivity to Philippine unemployment data:

• PSEI – The Philippine Stock Exchange Index often rallies on positive labor data reflecting economic growth.
• USDPHP – The USD/PHP currency pair reacts to employment data through shifts in monetary policy expectations.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect risk sentiment changes triggered by macroeconomic shifts.
• SM – A major Philippine conglomerate sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
• EURUSD – Global risk sentiment influenced by Philippine economic data can impact this major currency pair.

Insight: Unemployment Rate vs. PSEI Index Since 2020

Since 2020, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) has shown a strong inverse correlation with the unemployment rate. Periods of rising unemployment, such as during the 2020 pandemic shock, coincided with steep PSEI declines. Conversely, as unemployment fell from 2023 onward, the PSEI steadily recovered, reflecting improved corporate earnings and investor confidence. This relationship underscores the importance of labor market health as a leading indicator for equity market performance in the Philippines.

FAQs

What does the latest Philippines unemployment rate indicate?

The 3.80% unemployment rate in November 2025 indicates a stable labor market with steady job creation, below market expectations and recent highs.

How does the unemployment rate affect the Philippine economy?

Unemployment influences consumer spending, inflation, and monetary policy. Lower unemployment supports growth and stable inflation.

What are the risks to the Philippine labor market outlook?

Risks include global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures that could slow hiring or increase joblessness.

Takeaway: The Philippines’ unemployment rate at 3.80% signals a resilient labor market poised to support sustained economic growth, barring significant external shocks.

Author: John Dela Cruz, Senior Economist, Sigmanomics

Updated 11/6/25