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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PakistanPakistan Balance of Trade climbed to -721.6K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Pakistan Balance of Trade climbed to -721.6K in May 2026, released June 2026, up 470.3K from April's -1,191.9K reading. The print exceeded the -1,120K consensus by 398.4K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -881.82K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -918.63K, vs -903K in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
-721.6
Actual
-1120
Consensus
-1191.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±187.4 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -1,120
Actual: -721.6
Error: -398.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Pakistan) was reported at -722 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1,120 thousand by 398 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -1,192 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -847 thousand, ranging from -1,041 thousand to -722 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -780 thousand, up from the prior three at -916 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 94 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 144 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -683 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 187 thousand.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PK
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About Balance of Trade — Pakistan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -721.6 K, consensus -1,120 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1,139.2 K. Before that (Mar 2026): -764.7 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.