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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PakistanPakistan Balance of Trade climbed to -882.3K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Pakistan Balance of Trade climbed to -882.3K in August 2026, released September 2026, up 217.4K from July's -1,099.7K reading. The print exceeded the -1,000K consensus by 117.7K. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 71.3K. The reading is in the 29th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-882.3
Actual
-1000
Consensus
-1099.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±195.77 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -1,050.1
Actual: -882.3
Error: -167.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Pakistan) was reported at -882 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1,000 thousand by 118 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -1,100 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -890 thousand, ranging from -1,100 thousand to -722 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -901 thousand, down from the prior three at -886 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 117 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 156 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -720 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 196 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - PK
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About Balance of Trade — Pakistan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -882.3 K, consensus -1,000 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1,100.2 K. Before that (May 2026): -721.6 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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