Pace of Price Gains Slows: Pakistan’s February Inflation Rate MoM at 0.3%
Pakistan’s consumer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month in February, down from January’s 0.4% uptick. This marks a continued moderation in headline inflation, with the 12-month average now at 0.93%[1].
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.09pp
- Transport: +0.05pp
- Housing/utilities: +0.07pp
- Clothing/footwear: +0.03pp
- Health: +0.01pp
Policy pulse
February’s 0.3% MoM reading remains above the State Bank of Pakistan’s medium-term target of 0.2% per month, but the gap has narrowed since December’s 0.4% print.
Market lens
PKR-denominated assets saw muted reaction as the inflation print aligned with consensus estimates. Investors interpreted the data as a sign of stabilizing price pressures, reducing immediate expectations for further monetary tightening.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 0.3% MoM
- January 2026: 0.4% MoM
- December 2025: 0.4% MoM
- November 2025: 1.8% MoM
- October 2025: 2.0% MoM
- August 2025: 2.9% MoM
- June 2025: -0.2% MoM
Comparative lens
February’s reading is the lowest since January, and well below the 2.9% spike seen in August 2025. The 12-month average of 0.93% reflects the volatility in recent quarters.
Market lens
Bond yields held steady after the release. The moderation in inflation supports the view that the central bank will maintain its current policy stance in the near term.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Sustained moderation, with MoM inflation below 0.2% if food and fuel costs remain contained.
- Base (50–60%): Inflation fluctuates between 0.2% and 0.5% MoM, tracking seasonal and commodity price swings.
- Bearish (15–20%): Renewed supply disruptions or currency weakness push MoM inflation above 0.7%.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include energy price volatility and potential fiscal slippage. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and improved supply chains. The State Bank’s stance and global commodity trends will shape the inflation path.
Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and cross-verified with Sigmanomics[1]. The MoM inflation rate measures the percentage change in the consumer price index from the previous month.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Equities and the PKR traded sideways after the data. The steady inflation print reassured investors, but persistent core pressures keep the policy outlook cautious.Looking ahead
With headline inflation easing, attention turns to structural reforms and external vulnerabilities. The coming months will test whether recent gains in price stability can be sustained amid shifting global and domestic dynamics.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Pakistan’s inflation data influences a range of asset classes. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, reflect market segments most sensitive to shifts in the country’s price environment. Each symbol is linked to its official Sigmanomics page for further analysis.
- AAPL (Stocks): Global tech stocks like AAPL often react to emerging market inflation trends via risk sentiment channels.
- EURUSD (Forex): The EUR/USD pair can reflect capital flows as investors adjust exposure to emerging markets like Pakistan.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s price sometimes correlates with inflation surprises in developing economies, as investors seek hedges.
| Month | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | BTCUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2025 | 2.9 | Up |
| Oct 2025 | 2.0 | Flat |
| Nov 2025 | 1.8 | Down |
| Dec 2025 | 0.4 | Up |
| Feb 2026 | 0.3 | Flat |
Since 2020, BTCUSD has shown mixed correlation with Pakistan’s MoM inflation, spiking during local inflation surges but decoupling during periods of price stability.
FAQ: Pace of Price Gains Slows: Pakistan’s February Inflation Rate MoM at 0.3%
- What is the latest monthly inflation rate for Pakistan?
- Pakistan’s inflation rate for February 2026 was 0.3% month-over-month, down from January’s 0.4%.
- How does this inflation reading compare to recent trends?
- The 0.3% print is below the 12-month average of 0.93%, reflecting a continued moderation from mid-2025 highs.
- What is the focus of this report?
- This article analyzes Pakistan’s February 2026 MoM inflation rate, its drivers, historical context, and market impact.
Pakistan’s inflation momentum has cooled, but vigilance is warranted as underlying pressures persist.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Pakistan Inflation Rate MoM, accessed 3/2/26.
February’s 0.3% MoM inflation rate marks a slowdown from January’s 0.4%, and sits below the 12-month average of 0.93%. The recent trend shows a sharp deceleration from the 2.9% peak in August 2025, with price gains stabilizing over the past three months.
Since October, monthly inflation has trended lower, with November at 1.8%, December at 0.4%, and January at 0.4%. February’s print reinforces the downward trajectory, though core categories remain sticky.