Pakistan Inflation Rate YoY: February 2026 Report
Pakistan’s consumer inflation rate jumped to 7.0% year-over-year in February 2026, according to official data released March 2. This marks a significant uptick from January’s 5.8% and reverses the deceleration trend seen in late 2025. The latest figure exceeds both the market estimate of 6.2% and the State Bank of Pakistan’s medium-term target band.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Food prices: +0.7 percentage points
- Energy costs: +0.4 percentage points
- Transport: +0.2 percentage points
Policy Pulse
February’s 7.0% inflation rate stands well above the State Bank of Pakistan’s 5–7% target range. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to price stability, but the latest print may test its policy stance.
Market Lens
PKR-denominated assets saw immediate selling pressure after the inflation release. Yields on short-term government bonds rose, while the Karachi Stock Exchange’s main index slipped as investors recalibrated expectations for monetary tightening.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- February 2026: 7.0%
- January 2026: 5.8%
- December 2025: 6.1%
- November 2025: 6.2%
- October 2025: 5.6%
- August 2025: 4.1%
- June 2025: 3.5%
Comparative Analysis
The February reading is the highest since November 2025 and marks a reversal from the 5.6%–6.2% band observed in the prior four months. Compared to August’s 4.1% and June’s 3.5%, inflation has nearly doubled over eight months.
Methodology & Source
Figures are sourced from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The headline rate reflects the year-over-year change in the national Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Food and energy prices stabilize, returning inflation to the 5–6% range by mid-2026.
- Base Case (50–60%): Inflation remains elevated near 6.5–7.0% over the next quarter as supply-side pressures persist.
- Bearish (15–25%): Further currency weakness and commodity shocks push inflation above 7.5% in coming months.
Risks & Opportunities
Upside risks include continued rupee depreciation and global oil price volatility. Downside risks stem from potential fiscal tightening and improved harvests. The inflation trajectory will shape both monetary policy and market sentiment in the months ahead.
Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
Bond yields and the PKR responded swiftly to the inflation surprise. Investors are now watching for signals from the State Bank of Pakistan, as the inflation upturn challenges the recent narrative of price stability.Policy Pulse
With inflation breaching the upper end of the central bank’s target, policymakers face renewed pressure to act. The coming weeks will test the resilience of both the rupee and domestic demand.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Pakistan’s inflation spike has triggered notable moves across asset classes. The rupee weakened against major currencies, while local equities and government bonds saw increased volatility. Investors are recalibrating positions in response to the higher inflation trajectory and its implications for monetary policy.
- AAPL: Global tech stocks often see capital flows shift during emerging market inflation shocks, as risk appetite wanes.
- EURUSD: The rupee’s weakness against the dollar and euro is mirrored in broader EM currency trends.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge draws attention during periods of emerging market price instability.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (PK) | AAPL Price Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8.6% | Upward |
| 2022 | 12.2% | Volatile |
| 2024 | 7.8% | Stable |
| 2026 | 7.0% | Sideways |
This table shows that periods of high inflation in Pakistan have coincided with increased volatility in global equities such as AAPL, reflecting shifting risk sentiment and capital flows.
FAQ
- What is the latest Inflation Rate YoY for Pakistan?
- Pakistan’s annual inflation rate reached 7.0% in February 2026, up from 5.8% in January, according to official data.
- How does the February 2026 inflation reading compare to recent trends?
- The 7.0% print marks the sharpest monthly acceleration since October 2025 and exceeds the State Bank’s target range.
- What are the main drivers of Pakistan’s inflation rate this month?
- Food and energy prices were the primary contributors, adding a combined 1.1 percentage points to the headline figure.
Pakistan’s inflation rate has broken out of its recent range, raising the stakes for policymakers and investors alike.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data: Inflation Rate YoY, Pakistan, February 2026. https://sigmanomics.com/economic-data/pk-inflation-rate-yoy
- Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly Bulletin, February 2026.
February’s 7.0% inflation print sharply outpaces January’s 5.8% and the 12-month average of 5.0%. The latest surge interrupts a period of relative stability, with the index previously hovering near 6% since October 2025.
On a two-month view, the rate has climbed by 1.2 percentage points. The last comparable jump occurred in October 2025, when inflation rose from 3.0% in September to 5.6%.