Poland Consumer Confidence November 2025: A Slight Uptick Amid Persistent Challenges
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Poland’s Consumer Confidence index rose to -9.90 in November 2025, improving from -10.90 in October and surpassing the consensus estimate of -10.70, according to the Sigmanomics database[1]. This marks the highest confidence level since early 2025, though it remains below the long-term average of -7.20 over the past five years. The index’s negative territory reflects ongoing consumer caution amid inflation near 7%, elevated borrowing costs, and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.
Drivers this month
- Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 5.10%
- Moderation in inflation expectations, easing from 8% to 7% YoY
- Stable retail sales growth of 1.20% MoM
- Persisting concerns over energy prices and supply disruptions
Policy pulse
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintained its key interest rate at 7.00%, signaling a cautious approach to inflation targeting. Consumer confidence remains below the threshold that typically triggers monetary easing, suggesting continued tight financial conditions for the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Polish zloty (PLN) strengthened 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved sentiment. Short-term government bond yields (2-year) edged down by 5 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates held steady near 3.50%.
Consumer confidence in Poland is closely linked to core macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and labor market dynamics. GDP expanded by 3.10% YoY in Q3 2025, slightly below the 3.30% average of the past three years but resilient given external headwinds. Inflation remains elevated at 7.00% YoY, driven primarily by energy and food prices, though it has eased from a peak of 9.20% in mid-2024.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The NBP’s current policy stance is restrictive, with a 7.00% benchmark rate aimed at curbing inflation. Credit growth slowed to 4.50% YoY, reflecting tighter lending standards and cautious consumer borrowing. Real wage growth remains positive at 2.50% YoY, supporting household purchasing power despite inflationary pressures.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit projected at 3.80% of GDP. Government transfers and social spending have been stable, but no major stimulus measures are planned. This limits the fiscal buffer to support consumer spending in the face of monetary tightening.
Drivers this month
- Personal financial outlook improved by 0.80 points MoM
- Durable goods buying conditions rose 0.50 points MoM
- Economic expectations remained flat at -15.20
Policy pulse
The index remains below zero, indicating more pessimistic than optimistic consumers. This aligns with the NBP’s inflation target of 2.50%, which is still distant given current inflation. The data suggests limited scope for monetary easing in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PLN appreciated modestly, while the WIG20 index showed a 0.40% gain, reflecting improved risk appetite. Inflation-linked bonds remained stable, indicating steady inflation expectations.
This chart highlights a cautious but positive shift in consumer sentiment, reversing a recent downtrend. The improvement in personal finance expectations suggests consumers may cautiously increase spending, supporting near-term economic growth despite inflation and geopolitical risks.
Looking ahead, Poland’s consumer confidence trajectory will depend on several factors. Inflation is expected to gradually decline toward 5% by mid-2026, easing pressure on household budgets. However, monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive until inflation nears the 2.50% target. Fiscal policy is unlikely to provide significant stimulus, limiting upside potential.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Inflation falls faster than expected to below 4% by Q2 2026
- Labor market strengthens, pushing unemployment below 5%
- Consumer confidence rises above -5, boosting retail sales and GDP growth above 3.50%
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Inflation declines gradually to 5% by late 2026
- Consumer confidence stabilizes around -10 to -8
- GDP growth remains steady near 3%, with moderate consumption growth
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting energy supplies
- Inflation remains sticky above 6%, forcing further monetary tightening
- Consumer confidence drops below -15, dampening consumption and slowing GDP growth below 2%
Poland’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading signals a tentative recovery amid a challenging macroeconomic environment. While inflation and monetary policy remain headwinds, improving labor market conditions and stable fiscal policy provide some support. External risks, particularly geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, continue to cloud the outlook. Structural trends such as digitalization and demographic shifts will influence long-run consumer behavior and economic resilience.
Monitoring upcoming inflation data, wage growth, and geopolitical developments will be critical to assessing the sustainability of this confidence rebound. Investors and policymakers should prepare for a range of scenarios, balancing cautious optimism with vigilance against downside risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in Poland influences multiple asset classes, including equities, bonds, and currencies. The following tradable symbols historically track shifts in Polish consumer sentiment and macroeconomic conditions, providing useful gauges for market participants.
- WIG20 – Poland’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to domestic economic sentiment and consumer spending trends.
- EURPLN – The euro to Polish zloty currency pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows and risk appetite tied to consumer confidence.
- CDR – CD Projekt, a major Polish tech stock, often influenced by domestic consumer spending power.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a global risk sentiment barometer, can react to shifts in consumer confidence indirectly.
- USDPLN – The US dollar to Polish zloty pair, sensitive to monetary policy divergence and economic outlook.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. WIG20 Since 2020
Since 2020, Poland’s Consumer Confidence index and the WIG20 stock index have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of rising confidence, such as post-pandemic recovery in 2021, coincided with strong equity gains. Conversely, confidence dips during inflation spikes in 2022 aligned with market corrections. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for Polish equities.
FAQ
- What is the current level of Poland’s Consumer Confidence?
- The latest reading for November 2025 is -9.90, showing a modest improvement from -10.90 in October.
- How does consumer confidence affect Poland’s economy?
- Consumer confidence influences spending, which drives GDP growth, retail sales, and overall economic momentum.
- What are the main risks to Poland’s consumer confidence outlook?
- Key risks include persistent inflation, monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and energy price volatility.
Takeaway: Poland’s consumer confidence is cautiously rebounding but remains vulnerable to inflation and geopolitical shocks. Balanced policy and external stability will be key to sustaining growth.
November’s Consumer Confidence index at -9.90 represents a 1.00 point improvement from October’s -10.90 and is 2.70 points better than the 12-month average of -12.60. This upward trend reverses a three-month decline that began in August 2025, signaling tentative consumer optimism.
The index’s components show stronger expectations for personal finances (0.80 points MoM) and a slight improvement in buying conditions for durable goods (0.50 points MoM). However, expectations for the general economic situation remain subdued, reflecting persistent uncertainty.