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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Consumer Confidence fell to -10.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Poland Consumer Confidence fell to -10.2% in July 2026, down 0.3% from June's -9.9% reading. The reading missed the -9.5% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -10.91%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -10.6%, vs -11.8% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-10.2
Actual
-9.5
Consensus
-9.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.8 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -8.65
Actual: -10.2
Error: +1.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Poland) was reported at -10.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -9.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.36%, ranging from -12.2% to -9.1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -10.47%, down from the prior three at -10.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.8%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PL
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About Consumer Confidence — Poland
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -10.2 %, consensus -9.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -9.9 %. Before that (May 2026): -11.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.87) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |