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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Consumer Confidence fell to -14.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland Consumer Confidence fell to -14.0% in October 2026, down 3.2% from September's -10.8% reading. The reading missed the -11.4% consensus by 2.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -10.87%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -11.05%, vs -10.47% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-14
Actual
-11.4
Consensus
-10.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.49 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -11.43
Actual: -14
Error: +2.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/PLN | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Poland) was reported at -14% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -11.4% by 2.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -10.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.86%, ranging from -14% to -9.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -12.03%, down from the prior three at -10.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.49%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PL
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About Consumer Confidence — Poland
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -14 %, consensus -11.4 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -10.8 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -11.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.85 | Medium |
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 48.5 | 49.25 | Low | |