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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Consumer Confidence fell to -11.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Poland Consumer Confidence fell to -11.3% in August 2026, down 1.1% from July's -10.2% reading. The reading missed the -10.0% consensus by 1.3%. Consumer Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -10.05%, vs -12.53% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-11.3
Actual
-10
Consensus
-10.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.11 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -9.88
Actual: -11.3
Error: +1.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Poland) was reported at -11.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -10% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of -10.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.48%, ranging from -12.2% to -9.1% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -10.47%, up from the prior three at -10.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - PL
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About Consumer Confidence — Poland
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -11.3 %, consensus -10 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -10.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -9.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.86) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | PL | Balance of Trade | -1843 | -1469 | -1200 | -1521.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | PL | Current Account | -2419 | -2216 | -2341 | -2380.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | PL | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |