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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Employment Growth YoY held to -0.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland Employment Growth YoY held to -0.8% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the -0.8% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Employment Growth YoY averaged -0.8%, vs -0.9% in the prior 3-month window. Employment Growth YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
-0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.78
Actual: -0.8
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Growth YoY (Poland) was reported at -0.8% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.8% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.83%, ranging from -0.9% to -0.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.8%, up from the prior three at -0.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.05%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Employment Growth YoY has averaged -0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/PLN (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Employment Growth YoY - PL
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About Employment Growth YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
Employment Growth YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employed individuals over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall health of the job market and can be used to assess the strength of an economy. A positive Employment Growth YoY indicates an increase in job opportunities and a growing workforce, while a negative growth suggests a decline in employment and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about hiring, investing, and economic planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus -0.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/PLN (Bearish USD, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 48.5 | 49.25 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | PL | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | Medium | |