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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Employment Growth YoY climbed to -0.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Poland Employment Growth YoY climbed to -0.8% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from June's -0.9% reading. The print exceeded the -0.9% consensus by 0.1%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Employment Growth YoY averaged -0.9%, vs -0.87% in the prior 3-month window. Employment Growth YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
-0.9
Consensus
-0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.9
Actual: -0.8
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Employment Growth YoY (Poland) was reported at -0.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.9% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.83%, ranging from -0.9% to -0.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.87%, down from the prior three at -0.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.05%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Employment Growth YoY has averaged -0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Employment Growth YoY - PL
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About Employment Growth YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
Employment Growth YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employed individuals over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall health of the job market and can be used to assess the strength of an economy. A positive Employment Growth YoY indicates an increase in job opportunities and a growing workforce, while a negative growth suggests a decline in employment and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about hiring, investing, and economic planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus -0.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.9 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | PL | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.25 | Low |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:30 | PL | Consumer Confidence | -11.3 | -12 | -11.40 | Low | |