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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Employment Growth YoY held to -0.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Poland Employment Growth YoY held to -0.9% in June 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched the -0.9% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.83%. Over the past 3 months, Employment Growth YoY averaged -0.9%, vs -0.83% in the prior 3-month window. Employment Growth YoY is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-0.9
Actual
-0.9
Consensus
-0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.9
Actual: -0.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Employment Growth YoY (Poland) was reported at -0.9% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -0.9% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.84%, ranging from -0.9% to -0.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.9%, down from the prior three at -0.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.05%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Employment Growth YoY has averaged -0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Employment Growth YoY - PL
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About Employment Growth YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
Employment Growth YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employed individuals over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall health of the job market and can be used to assess the strength of an economy. A positive Employment Growth YoY indicates an increase in job opportunities and a growing workforce, while a negative growth suggests a decline in employment and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about hiring, investing, and economic planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.9 %, consensus -0.9 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.1 | 47.5 | 47.60 | Low | |